THE NUMBERS
Romney and McCain firm, going into Iowa next week. Clinton does, as well, but not as much. Thompson is unloved, not making a stir in the VP standings, either.
THE STRATEGIES
I don't like binary bets, much. The Clinton-Giuliani parley has collapsed. If you think that they will be the two, there is gold available, right now. The contract may fair quite well if that is the ultimate outcome, and offer some near-term 'protection', if Clinton does well, while Giuliani slides further on the heels of possible losses in Iowa and/or NH.
TABLES
[n.b. changes are from three weeks ago.]
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 44 | 3.9 | 2% | | GIULIANI | 11.9 | -6 | 3% | | OBAMA | 13.6 | -2.5 | 7% | | HUCKABEE | 4.3 | -3.9 | 5% | | ROMNEY | 8 | 1 | 11% | | McCAIN | 8.6 | 5.9 | 3% | | PAUL | 3.2 | 0.6 | 31% |
| 2007 Week 52: Last week newspaper endorsements favor McCain and Clinton. Campaigns sprint to the end.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 30.3 | -9.2 | 0% | | ROMNEY | 22.4 | 3.5 | 3% | | MCCAIN | 18.1 | 9.9 | 4% | | HUCKABEE | 14.5 | -5.3 | 4% | | PAUL | 6.4 | 1.4 | 2% | | THOMPSON(F) | 3.1 | -2 | 16% | | RICE | 0.6 | -0.5 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 67 | 4.8 | 0% | | OBAMA | 23.4 | -5.6 | 6% | | GORE | 2.1 | -0.3 | 10% | | EDWARDS | 5.2 | 0.3 | 4% | | RICHRDSN | 0.2 | -0.1 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.1 | -0.2 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 83.3 | 2.3 | 10% | | GOP | 10 | -0.1 | 89% |
| |
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 6.8 | -4.3 | 59% | | BAYH | 17 | -0.9 | 11% | | FIELD | 13.6 | 1.4 | 1% | | RICHARDSON | 11.8 | -0.7 | 22% | | GORE | 9.2 | -1.4 | 29% | | CLARK | 12.2 | 0.2 | 9% | | WEBB | 4.2 | -1 | 26% |
| | GOP VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| FIELD | 23.3 | -1.9 | 71% | | HUCKABEE | 21.1 | -7.2 | 18% | | PAWLENTY | 7.2 | 0.8 | 38% | | THOMPSON(F) | 2.6 | -2.6 | 250% | | GIULIANI | 3.9 | 3.6 | 85% | | GINGRICH | 6.3 | 1.2 | 2% | | BUSH(J) | 2.5 | -2.5 | 132% |
|
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 23 | -10.2 | 9% | | CLINTON-ROMNEY | 15.5 | 2.5 | 10% | | OBAMA-GIULIANI | 8 | -2 | 1% | | CLINTON-HUCK | 9 | -0.1 | 49% | | OBAMA-HUCKABEE | 5.6 | -2.4 | 71% | | OBAMA-ROMNEY | 8 | 2.5 | 13% | | CLINTON-McCAIN | 11.3 | 7.3 | 15% | | OBAMA-McCAIN | 5 | 3 | 78% |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 40.1 | 3.1 | 7% |
| OBAMA | 37.6 | -8.5 | 2% |
| EDWARDS | 21.2 | 11.1 | 18% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 30 | 7.7 | 15% |
| GIULIANI | 0.2 | -0.2 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1.5 | 1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 5.5 | 4.4 | 98% |
| HUCKABEE | 59.8 | -10.2 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 2.5 | 2.4 | 176% |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 55 | 55 | 5% |
| OBAMA | 35 | 4 | 26% |
| EDWARDS | 1.6 | 0.5 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | 111% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 47 | -13.9 | 15% |
| GIULIANI | 1.2 | -6.5 | 65% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.3 | 0.2 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 6.5 | 1.2 | 54% |
| HUCKABEE | 3.8 | -9.6 | 149% |
| MCCAIN | 26.3 | 17.5 | n.m. |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 40.1 | 5 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 50 | 13.6 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 1.3 | -0.7 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | 146% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 10 | -0.4 | 10% |
| GIULIANI | 5.3 | -11.7 | 168% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 7.1 | -8.8 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 52 | 6.6 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 10.1 | 9.1 | 150% |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70.1 | -10 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 15.1 | 2.5 | 190% |
| EDWARDS | 2 | -0.5 | 10% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | 100% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 7 | 6 | 100% |
| GIULIANI | 46.1 | -23.9 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 2 | 0.8 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 21 | 4.9 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 10.1 | 8 | 170% |
| New Jersey Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 0 | -80 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 5 | 98% |
| EDWARDS | 1 | 0.9 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | 200% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5.1 | 0.1 | 393% |
| GIULIANI | 50.2 | 50.2 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 8 | 5.9 | 500% |
| Nevada Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 35 | -45 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 5.1 | -5 | 24% |
| EDWARDS | 1 | 0.9 | 329% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 16.2 | -12.9 | 31% |
| GIULIANI | 25.6 | 0.4 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 6.1 | 1.1 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 5.6 | 5.5 | n.m. |
| Pennsylvania Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 50 | -20 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 5 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 1 | 1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 65.2 | -6 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | 0 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 10.5 | 2.5 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 10 | 7.9 | n.m. |
| California Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 50 | -25 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 5 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 1 | 0.9 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 10.1 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 54.9 | -10.1 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 10.1 | 8.1 | n.m. |
| Michigan Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 40 | -40 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 2.5 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 40.1 | 40.1 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 5.1 | -20.9 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.7 | -4.3 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 20.6 | 19.5 | n.m. |
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