THE NUMBERS
The big moves have been in Obama and Huckabee. The latter has been astonishing and could have made a lot of money, for anyone who had the foresight to buy after his straw-poll win in Washington, D.C. with evangelical groups.
Huckabee's advance has come at the expense of Romney, particularly in Iowa.
There are new contracts for the number of seats in the Senate and House (as well as a contract on Ron Paul to enter as an independent, even though he continues to say "no" to that possibility, it's traded at 15, last).
THE STRATEGIES
Obama is on the move in the parleys, and those betting the Obama ticket(s) could have doubled their money in the past month or so (although the bid-ask spreads will eat you alive).
McCain continues to look flat.
There is still significant probability on Edwards in the Iowa caucuses that seems to be an opportunity.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 40.1 | -9 | 2% | | GIULIANI | 17.9 | 0.8 | 1% | | OBAMA | 16.1 | 8.1 | 2% | | HUCKABEE | 8.2 | 0 | 5% | | ROMNEY | 7 | -2.8 | 3% | | McCAIN | 2.7 | 0.4 | 11% | | PAUL | 2.6 | -0.9 | 19% |
| 2007 Week 49: GOP debates "youTube" in SC, just as news of Giuliani's security blanket on girlfriend breaks; Oprah in Iowa; Clinton, Bill in SC; Romney with flashy Faith-in-America speech  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 39.5 | -6 | 3% | | ROMNEY | 18.9 | -8.2 | 4% | | HUCKABEE | 19.8 | 11.6 | 1% | | MCCAIN | 8.2 | 1.2 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 5.1 | 0.2 | 2% | | PAUL | 5 | -1 | 4% | | RICE | 1.1 | -0.3 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 62.2 | -9 | 4% | | OBAMA | 29 | 11.9 | 3% | | GORE | 2.4 | -2.2 | 21% | | EDWARDS | 4.9 | -0.5 | 2% | | RICHRDSN | 0.3 | 0 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.3 | 0 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 81 | -1.1 | 11% | | GOP | 10.1 | -4.9 | 98% |
| |
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 11.1 | -4 | 6% | | BAYH | 17.9 | -0.1 | 9% | | FIELD | 12.2 | 0.2 | 16% | | RICHARDSON | 12.5 | -3.2 | 27% | | GORE | 10.6 | 4.2 | 50% | | CLARK | 12 | 2 | 21% | | WEBB | 5.2 | 1.6 | 13% |
| | DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| FIELD | 25.2 | 2.2 | 57% | | HUCKABEE | 28.3 | 1.1 | 5% | | PAWLENTY | 6.4 | 1.1 | 116% | | THOMPSON(F) | 5.2 | 1.2 | 87% | | GIULIANI | 0.3 | -5.3 | n.m. | | GINGRICH | 5.1 | 0 | 53% | | BUSH(J) | 5 | -0.4 | 32% |
|
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 33.2 | -5.8 | 8% | | CLINTON-ROMNEY | 13 | -7.1 | 38% | | OBAMA-GIULIANI | 10 | 5.9 | 27% | | CLINTON-HUCK | 9.1 | 0 | 47% | | OBAMA-HUCKABEE | 8 | 0 | 63% | | OBAMA-ROMNEY | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2% | | CLINTON-McCAIN | 4 | -1.1 | 63% | | OBAMA-McCAIN | 2 | 1.7 | 50% |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 37 | -13.1 | 18% |
| OBAMA | 46.1 | 17.1 | 17% |
| EDWARDS | 10.1 | -4.9 | 57% |
| FIELD | 0.2 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 22.3 | -23.2 | 48% |
| GIULIANI | 0.4 | -2.9 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.5 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 1.1 | -6.1 | n.m. |
| HUCKABEE | 70 | 0 | 8% |
| MCCAIN | 0.1 | -0.2 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 0 | -79.9 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 31 | 12 | 13% |
| EDWARDS | 1.1 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 60.9 | -8.6 | 6% |
| GIULIANI | 7.7 | -4.3 | 56% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.1 | -1.4 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 5.3 | -3.7 | 55% |
| HUCKABEE | 13.4 | 0 | 54% |
| MCCAIN | 8.8 | 1.8 | 41% |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 35.1 | -44.7 | 50% |
| OBAMA | 36.4 | 21.4 | 54% |
| EDWARDS | 2 | -1 | 285% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 10.4 | -14.6 | 46% |
| GIULIANI | 17 | -3 | 16% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 15.9 | -9.1 | 55% |
| FIELD | 45.4 | 32.8 | 10% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | -3.5 | n.m. |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 80.1 | -0.9 | 10% |
| OBAMA | 12.6 | 0.1 | 83% |
| EDWARDS | 2.5 | 0.4 | 60% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 1 | -5 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 70 | -9.9 | 7% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1.2 | -4.8 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 16.1 | 10.1 | 24% |
| MCCAIN | 2.1 | -0.4 | 310% |
| New Jersey Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 80 | 0 | 13% |
| OBAMA | 5 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5 | 1.9 | 200% |
| GIULIANI | 0 | -80 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1 | -4.1 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 2.1 | -1.9 | 376% |
| Nevada Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 80 | 0.1 | 6% |
| OBAMA | 10.1 | 2.1 | 98% |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -5 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 29.1 | 17 | 24% |
| GIULIANI | 25.2 | -33.8 | 113% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | 0 | 20% |
| MCCAIN | 0.1 | -1.9 | n.m. |
| Pennsylvania Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70 | -10 | 27% |
| OBAMA | 5 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0 | -1.1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5.1 | -3 | 192% |
| GIULIANI | 71.2 | -0.8 | 12% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| FIELD | 8 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 2.1 | 0 | 329% |
| California Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 75 | 0 | 13% |
| OBAMA | 5 | -5 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 10 | -0.1 | 50% |
| GIULIANI | 65 | 0 | 8% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | 4 | 200% |
| MCCAIN | 2 | -0.1 | 350% |
| Michigan Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 80 | 0 | 24% |
| OBAMA | 7.5 | -7.5 | 227% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | -2.1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 0 | -46.5 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 26 | 0 | 34% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | 0 | 140% |
| MCCAIN | 1.1 | -5 | n.m. |
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