Friday, January 25, 2008

Just the Numbers: Week 4

THE NUMBERS

The rise of McCain has been phenomenal (just past eight weeks = 7x a down-in-the-dust "investment" in him!). In the past eight weeks, he has traded places with Giuliani's numbers (Rudy, once at 46, is now at 9).

The South Carolina loss has shut down bulls on Huckabee almost completely. The Michigan win has greatly revived the Romney figures.

THE STRATEGIES

My guess - and it is speculative - is that McCain will win in Florida. Accordingly, the McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama combos look really, really attractive.

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)457.82%
GIULIANI4.2-314%
OBAMA15.5-9.15%
HUCKABEE0.8-3.6n.m.
ROMNEY11.47.94%
McCAIN18-0.16%
PAUL10.4n.m.
2008 Week 4: Thompson withdraws; Kucinich withdraws. Obama-Clinton do slugfest in S. Carolina; GOP debate in Florida.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
MCCAIN49.62.50%
ROMNEY34.525.97%
GIULIANI9.2-11.417%
HUCKABEE3-11.13%
PAUL1.7-0.5n.m.
RICE0.40n.m.
GINGRICH0.40n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON66.710.71%
OBAMA31.7-8.43%
GORE0.90n.m.
EDWARDS0.7-0.8n.m.
RICHRDSN0.10n.m.
BIDEN00n.m.
DODD00n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM8837%
GOP5.1-0.192%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM61.1-1.43%
GOP35.2-0.33%
OTH2.70.74%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA20.18.618%
BAYH11-2.622%
FIELD20-13%
RICHARDSON10.60.412%
GORE12.411%
CLARK7.6-2.563%
WEBB1.7-1.3n.m.
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
FIELD30.30.219%
HUCKABEE22.72.27%
PAWLENTY9.5353%
THOMPSON(F)10.96.216%
GIULIANI63.515%
GINGRICH1.8-4.5n.m.
BUSH(J)0.2-1.8n.m.
President ParleyPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON-McCAIN37.313.34%
OBAMA-McCAIN14.2-4.85%
CLINTON-GIULIAN4-8.550%
OBAMA-GIULIANI3.1-3.929%
CLINTON-HUCK0.2-6.8n.m.
OBAMA-HUCKABEE0.3-5.2n.m.
CLINTON-ROMNEY211633%
OBAMA-ROMNEY94.956%
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Can Free Markets "Fix" The Bond Insurnace Crisis?

Some people are prone to theorize that we could all get along without the Federal Reserve System or even using private currency.

Tsk. Tsk.

Check out the free markets ... er, not at work.

In many circumstances, the rational response is to pull up your drawbridges. That's not so good, if the economy is supposed to maximize general welfare, is it?

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Housing Market Downdraft - On Track

Construction has special importance as an economic variable, for a number of reasons. It tends to be one of the more cyclical components of ...er, 'free markets'.

The current read is that new housing starts came in at 1006 thousand (about a million homes).

On my little housing model (that is needed if you are going to forecast GDP for 2008), this is consistent with the fall in housing that most have already forecast.

I was up at 1090 for the month. My figures guess at a bottom in May-Jul of this year.

I'd say that the pace of 'correction' appears a bit faster than I was projecting, except that permits, a more forward looking indicator, came in at 1068.

(caveat: most figures, including these, get revised. These "estimates", nevertheless, have a reality all their own, for investors and prognosticators. This series isn't known for exceptionally sharp revisions, however, as best I recall.)

Monday, January 14, 2008

Just the Numbers: Week 2

THE NUMBERS

Just a quick peek (no time for more).

McCain is the biggest winner, still, on a percentage basis.

THE STRATEGIES

One pundit put it best. McCain is "The Survivor" candidate - he represents everyone's second choice. Which means he could win it.


Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)37.25.71%
GIULIANI7.2-2.96%
OBAMA24.6-0.52%
HUCKABEE4.4-1.25%
ROMNEY3.5-2.83%
McCAIN18.14.87%
PAUL0.6-2.5n.m.
2008 Week 2: IA Primary goes for Huckabee & Obama; NH goes for McCain & Clinton.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
MCCAIN47.115.61%
GIULIANI20.6-5.81%
HUCKABEE14.1-26%
ROMNEY8.6-5.59%
PAUL2.2-2.69%
THOMPSON(F)3.50.86%
GINGRICH0.40n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON5652%
OBAMA40.1-32%
GORE0.9-0.6n.m.
EDWARDS1.5-0.9n.m.
RICHRDSN0.1-0.2n.m.
BIDEN0-0.1n.m.
DODD00n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM85-0.111%
GOP5.2090%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM62.51.80%
GOP35.5-1.55%
OTH2-0.15%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA11.56.98%
BAYH13.6-3.28%
FIELD217.413%
RICHARDSON10.2-3.834%
GORE11.43.622%
CLARK10.1-2.112%
WEBB3097%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
FIELD30.10.146%
HUCKABEE20.510.57%
PAWLENTY6.5-0.652%
THOMPSON(F)4.72.2304%
GIULIANI2.5-3172%
GINGRICH6.306%
BUSH(J)2-1170%
President ParleyPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON-McCAIN248.321%
OBAMA-McCAIN195.918%
CLINTON-GIULIAN12.5-226%
OBAMA-GIULIANI7-2.157%
CLINTON-HUCK7-0.526%
OBAMA-HUCKABEE5.5-2.544%
CLINTON-ROMNEY51.9398%
OBAMA-ROMNEY4.11178%
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.


Caucus/CandidatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
OBAMA75.813.70%
CLINTON22.512.511%
EDWARDS1.1-0.9n.m.
FIELD00n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN50.520.57%
FIELD4227%
THOMPSON(F)5-0.180%
ROMNEY1.6-6.4n.m.
GIULIANI0.1-1n.m.
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON69398%
OBAMA25.57.437%
EDWARDS0.10n.m.
FIELD00n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN5130.9n.m.
GIULIANI27-19.3n.m.
FIELD150n.m.
ROMNEY1.5-5.351%
THOMPSON(F)1.1-1n.m.
New Jersey Primary
Democratic
CLINTON603922%
OBAMA307.4n.m.
EDWARDS0.10n.m.
FIELD0011%
Republican
GIULIANI55-19.3100%
MCCAIN17.530.9n.m.
ROMNEY5.1-5.3n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0.2-1n.m.
FIELD0.101%
Nevada Caucus
Democratic
OBAMA4326.4n.m.
CLINTON33.78.60%
EDWARDS0.1-0.49%
FIELD0061%
Republican
MCCAIN3722n.m.
ROMNEY265n.m.
GIULIANI10-15n.m.
THOMPSON(F)1-1n.m.
Pennsylvania Primary
Democratic
CLINTON5030n.m.
OBAMA4030n.m.
EDWARDS0.10n.m.
FIELD00n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN4030.9n.m.
GIULIANI35-25n.m.
FIELD1010n.m.
ROMNEY50n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0.3-0.7n.m.
California Primary
Democratic
CLINTON4525n.m.
OBAMA4531n.m.
EDWARDS0.10n.m.
FIELD00n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN4537n.m.
GIULIANI31-19n.m.
FIELD1010n.m.
ROMNEY5-5.2n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0.50n.m.
Michigan Primary
Democratic
CLINTON93.573.4n.m.
FIELD3.22.8n.m.
OBAMA0.8-9.2n.m.
EDWARDS0-2n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN67.532.4n.m.
ROMNEY2311.9n.m.
FIELD5.65.6n.m.
GIULIANI0.1-0.9n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0-0.8n.m.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Mobility of Capital or Mobility of People

Dr. Mankiw always has little posers that I suppose he thinks make his points, as do we all.

Here is one.

1. A firm decides to build a $100 million plant in China to make toys there, for import to the USA.
2. Another firm decides to build a $100 million plant in Detroit and bring the Chinese workers to the USA, instead.

The GOP funsters appear to love the first, scaled to almost any degree and irrespective of the communist character of the Chinese government; but they also appear to hate the second, with conservative think-tanks often putting out papers that "demonstrate" that importing workers lowers real wages, a conclusion that they use to bolster what appears to the casual observer to be natural, anti-immigrant sentiments.

Perhaps Paul Krugman's article will have some insights to this political conundrum on the Right, too.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Just the Numbers: Week 1

THE NUMBERS

Post Iowa, McCain, not Obama, is the biggest mover. Clinton is the biggest loser.

THE STRATEGIES

There was some money to be made int he VP contracts that I missed.

McCain may pick up a lot of independents in N.H., where they relate to his ruggedly independent persona. That may make it a harder state than Iowa for Obama. However, he is not projected to win the primary in the Granite State.



Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)31.5-12.56%
GIULIANI10.1-1.85%
OBAMA25.111.57%
HUCKABEE5.61.34%
ROMNEY6.3-1.710%
McCAIN13.34.712%
PAUL3.1-0.13%
2008 Week 1: Huckabee gets a miracle; Obama has answered prayers; McCain gets a reprieve. Everyone else still on the ropes, except dropouts Biden, Dodd, and Gravel.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
MCCAIN31.513.41%
GIULIANI26.4-3.913%
ROMNEY14.1-8.310%
HUCKABEE16.11.61%
PAUL4.8-1.617%
THOMPSON(F)2.7-0.422%
RICE0.3-0.3n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON51-165%
OBAMA43.119.73%
GORE1.5-0.6n.m.
EDWARDS2.4-2.84%
RICHRDSN0.30.1n.m.
BIDEN0.10n.m.
DODD0-0.1n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM85.11.85%
GOP5.2-4.890%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM60.7-0.52%
GOP3701%
OTH2.10.124%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA4.6-2.272%
BAYH16.8-0.25%
FIELD13.602%
RICHARDSON142.26%
GORE7.8-1.426%
CLARK12.209%
WEBB3-1.280%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
FIELD306.733%
HUCKABEE10-11.199%
PAWLENTY7.1-0.138%
THOMPSON(F)2.5-0.1164%
GIULIANI5.51.624%
GINGRICH6.302%
BUSH(J)30.587%
President ParleyPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON-GIULIAN14.5-8.517%
CLINTON-ROMNEY3.1-12.4203%
OBAMA-GIULIANI9.11.1109%
CLINTON-HUCK7.5-1.523%
OBAMA-HUCKABEE82.425%
OBAMA-ROMNEY3.1-4.9219%
CLINTON-McCAIN15.74.48%
OBAMA-McCAIN13.18.191%
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/CandidatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
CLINTON33.1-21.932%
OBAMA65306%
EDWARDS0.2-1.4n.m.
FIELD0-0.1n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY23-246%
GIULIANI0.3-0.9n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0.2-0.1n.m.
FIELD3.5-3166%
HUCKABEE1.2-2.6n.m.
MCCAIN7043.73%
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
CLINTON10-30.1337%
OBAMA62.112.137%
EDWARDS20.795%
FIELD0-0.1181%
Republican
ROMNEY8-249%
GIULIANI1.1-4.2n.m.
THOMPSON(F)5.1-2n.m.
FIELD40-1267%
MCCAIN3019.9n.m.
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON30-40.1n.m.
OBAMA18.13n.m.
EDWARDS0.1-1.9n.m.
FIELD0-0.1188%
Republican
ROMNEY6.8-0.2148%
GIULIANI46.30.2449%
THOMPSON(F)2.10.1n.m.
FIELD15-6n.m.
MCCAIN20.110n.m.
New Jersey Primary
Democratic
CLINTON2020n.m.
OBAMA100n.m.
EDWARDS0.1-0.939%
FIELD0-0.1n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY5.10463%
GIULIANI65.114.9n.m.
THOMPSON(F)1.10.1n.m.
MCCAIN102649%
Nevada Caucus
Democratic
CLINTON25.1-9.9n.m.
OBAMA16.611.5260%
EDWARDS0.5-0.5n.m.
FIELD0-0.1n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY214.8n.m.
GIULIANI25-0.6n.m.
THOMPSON(F)2-4.1n.m.
MCCAIN159.4n.m.
Pennsylvania Primary
Democratic
CLINTON20-30n.m.
OBAMA100n.m.
EDWARDS0.1-0.9n.m.
FIELD0-0.1n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY5-0.1n.m.
GIULIANI60-5.2n.m.
THOMPSON(F)1-4n.m.
FIELD6-4.5n.m.
MCCAIN9.1-0.9n.m.
California Primary
Democratic
CLINTON20-30n.m.
OBAMA144n.m.
EDWARDS0.1-0.9n.m.
FIELD0-0.1n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY10.20.1n.m.
GIULIANI50-4.9n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0.5-4.5n.m.
MCCAIN8-2.1n.m.
Michigan Primary
Democratic
CLINTON20.1-19.9n.m.
OBAMA100n.m.
EDWARDS22n.m.
FIELD0.40.4n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY11.1-29n.m.
GIULIANI1-4.1n.m.
THOMPSON(F)0.80.1n.m.
MCCAIN35.114.5n.m.