Sunday, July 29, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 30

THE NUMBERS

Very little to note in the numbers. I've put up the contract figures for the primaries, although most remain very low volume with wide bid-ask. Romeny has strength in IA and NH, but not in the Southern primaries.

McCain has no rebound in the numbers and isn't trading much higher than Gingrich.

THE STRATEGIES

It appears that the Thompson candidacy keeps Romney a third-choice in some states. Is that a kind of party insurance against being dominated by the Christian right?

Can Thompson make it all the way through super Tuesday? It does appear that he could, now. I continue to want to look for points to bet against.


Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)26.51.13%
OBAMA20.50.12%
GIULIANI200.91%
THOMPSON(F)14.9-1.61%
ROMNEY815%
BLOOMBERG4.2012%
GORE4.20.410%
2007 Week 30: Thompson campaign runs into snags/departures; CNN-youTube debate for the Dems leads to Obama-Clinton spat during week; Gonzales ... keeps talking; Vet Commision issues report, Congress votes Homeland Security Bill.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI35.8-3.26%
THOMPSON(F)32.7-0.71%
ROMNEY17.31.46%
MCCAIN4.80.815%
PAUL3.10.33%
GINGRICH3.30.63%
HUCKABEE0.8-0.4n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON483.20%
OBAMA35.9-2.31%
EDWARDS6.91.53%
GORE4.3-1.65%
RICHRDSN2.80.94%
BIDEN10.4n.m.
CLARK0.70.1n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM76-19%
GOP15.10.666%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM56.61.30%
GOP39.112%
OTH4.4-0.15%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
RICHARDSON27228%
OBAMA18.54.919%
WARNER10085%
CLARK8-363%
BAYH60.558%
VILSACK6-0.250%
CLINTON(H)5090%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.





DEM CandidatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
Iowa Caucus
Democratic
CLINTON35040%
OBAMA00n.m.
EDWARDS20060%
FIELD0.10n.m.
GORE5098%
Republican
ROMNEY40025%
GIULIANI15033%
THOMPSON(F)25040%
FIELD60150%
MCCAIN10n.m.
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
CLINTON550n.m.
OBAMA20035%
EDWARDS50200%
FIELD00n.m.
GORE5032%
Republican
ROMNEY35029%
GIULIANI25040%
THOMPSON(F)20050%
FIELD60150%
MCCAIN10n.m.
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
CLINTON250n.m.
OBAMA00n.m.
EDWARDS50200%
FIELD00n.m.
GORE00n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY50200%
GIULIANI20050%
THOMPSON(F)60017%
FIELD00n.m.
MCCAIN0.10n.m.
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON7400%
OBAMA1600%
EDWARDS000%
FIELD000%
GORE000%
Republican
ROMNEY0.100%
GIULIANI4000%
THOMPSON(F)4000%
FIELD500%
MCCAIN000%
Nevada Primary
Democratic
CLINTON7000%
OBAMA1500%
EDWARDS000%
FIELD000%
GORE500%
Republican
ROMNEY1200%
GIULIANI2000%
THOMPSON(F)5500%
MCCAIN000%

Monday, July 16, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 28

THE NUMBERS

[note: "Chg Wk" column in tables is really change since the last update, which was more than one week ago. I was "busy" with "Gay Pride Month", o.k.?]

Clinton's edge in the numbers narrows, with "Next President" contract now almost a three-way toss up. Surprisingly, Romney's nomination hopes are down on these figures, although other polls show him doing the same or better.

The Democratic race finally narrows, as Gore's nominee contract finally breaks down to 5% or so and Edwards trades at new contract lows.

Although the bid-asks are so wide that implications are highly speculative, the VP figures are suggesting that John Edwards will not win a spot as a running mate. Even Wes Clark :-) has higher ratings, for instance.

I've noticed that the parley for Clinton-Guiliani has been rising (this is the joint chance that they will be in the end-race). I think other pundits have Clinton-Romney rising.

THE STRATEGIES

When I mused back at week 23,

"If the numbers for Thompson are "real", then one has to seriously think that the next 'sell the losers' bet is a combo of Gore and McCain."

who knew that I was probably hitching on to the most perspicacious call so far, with Gore dropping 5% and McCain about twice that?



Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)25.4-8.67%
OBAMA20.43.717%
GIULIANI19.17.72%
THOMPSON(F)16.51.712%
ROMNEY7-3.320%
GORE3.8-432%
EDWARDS3.2-0.141%
2007 Week 28: Bill Clinton out on Campaign Trail in earnest; McCain campaign in huge shakeup, fires long-time advisors; Bush Admin reports and stumps for Iraq policy; NYC firefighters group launches first salvo against Guiliani.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI3914.314%
THOMPSON(F)33.44.47%
ROMNEY15.9-63%
MCCAIN4-8.28%
PAUL2.81.57%
GINGRICH2.714%
HUCKABEE1.20.1n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON44.8-4.80%
OBAMA38.28.61%
GORE5.9-4.62%
EDWARDS5.4-0.72%
RICHRDSN1.9-0.1n.m.
BIDEN0.60.1n.m.
CLARK0.60.1n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM77-311%
GOP14.51.559%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM55.30.10%
GOP38.1-3.46%
OTH4.51.37%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
RICHARDSON258.840%
OBAMA13.6-19.540%
CLARK113.3118%
WARNER10-250%
WEBB106.310%
VILSACK6.23.2134%
BAYH5.55.464%


src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.