Saturday, June 16, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 24

THE NUMBERS

McCain hits new contract lows, as Thompson candidacy seems to benefit the most from his slide. Gore continues to be well bid, for both President and VP.

Edwards seems to get no 'bounce' from his debate performance.

THE STRATEGIES

I'm still having a hard time believing in the sure-footedness of the Thompson campaign.


Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)32.4-1.60%
OBAMA16.708%
THOMPSON(F)161.21%
GIULIANI12.71.36%
ROMNEY9.5-0.85%
GORE6.7-1.122%
McCAIN5.6-0.92%
2007 Week 24: Weekly newscycle was largley dominated by Congressional-WH politics; Libby sentencing turns into quasi-farce; Mass. legislature fails to push for ban on gay marriage via Constitutional amendment; mud-slinging yet to begin in earnest.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
THOMPSON(F)30.41.43%
GIULIANI28.13.45%
ROMNEY20.1-1.81%
MCCAIN9.1-3.14%
GINGRICH1.90.2n.m.
HUCKABEE1.20.1n.m.
PAUL1.50.2n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON49.2-0.40%
OBAMA27.2-2.49%
GORE11.30.81%
EDWARDS5.3-0.82%
RICHRDSN1.8-0.2n.m.
BIDEN0.50n.m.
CLARK0.50n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM77-311%
GOP14.51.559%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM55-0.21%
GOP41.1-0.41%
OTH3.50.33%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA29-4.110%
RICHARDSON19.53.354%
GORE13.77.719%
CLARK7.6-0.1104%
BAYH4.54.456%
EDWARDS4.54.478%
WEBB3.70197%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 23

THE NUMBERS

Thompson moves up strongly in the week to front-runner status, perhaps in an indication of how dissatisfied the party is with the current line-up.

McCain falls to lowest figures yet for his traded contract.

Romney appears to develop teflon coating, as he can say just about anything and his figures do not move. (This is what happens when you are "God's guy" not a guy who strives to do God's will?)

Gingrich, Brownback, Huckabee, and Richardson all hit new lows. Gore continues to hold onto 10%.

THE STRATEGIES

Sell Gore?

The strategy of selling the losers in the "third tier" has paid off about 10% since March. That's a decent enough return, if you can lock it in before trading costs.

If the numbers for Thompson are "real", then one has to seriously think that the next 'sell the losers' bet is a combo of Gore and McCain.

I cannot believe that Thompson has the time and organization to mount a serious challenge, so I'd view these numbers (on up into the 30s) as a good point to sell. Those with more electoral experience, of course, could prove me wrong - perhaps he has more viability than I'm giving him credit for?

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)34-2.62%
OBAMA16.7-0.57%
THOMPSON(F)14.83.77%
GIULIANI11.40.421%
ROMNEY10.30.55%
GORE7.8-0.21%
McCAIN6.5-3.537%
2007 Week 23: Dems showcase their faith on CNN; Dems/GOP debates in NH; Giuliani gives a pass to Iowa; Thompson makes waves from side of the pool; Immigration Bill stalls in Senate.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
THOMPSON(F)294.41%
GIULIANI24.70.54%
ROMNEY21.9-1.11%
MCCAIN12.2-4.92%
GINGRICH1.7-0.8n.m.
PAUL1.3-0.9n.m.
HUCKABEE1.1-0.9n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON49.6-1.41%
OBAMA29.62.13%
GORE10.502%
EDWARDS6.1-1.15%
RICHRDSN2-0.35%
BIDEN0.50n.m.
CLARK0.50n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM8005%
GOP13-277%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM55.20.14%
GOP41.500%
OTH3.2-0.36%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA33.15.60%
RICHARDSON16.2023%
WARNER1211.825%
CLARK7.7043%
GORE6-672%
WEBB3.70116%
VILSACK3-0.1167%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Sunday, June 3, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 22

THE NUMBERS

Fred Thompson moves up, Giuliani moves down. Romney has not lost any strength.

THE STRATEGIES

I wondered aloud here about the possibility of a third-party or independent candidacy. The "field" option has been very slowly rising over the past weeks. The move seems not to be a blip any longer.

Richardson seems like a more likely VP candidate, if one is betting on Clinton, yes?

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)36.6-1.63%
OBAMA17.20.21%
THOMPSON(F)11.13.91%
GIULIANI1101%
McCAIN102.630%
ROMNEY9.80.812%
GORE80.61%
2007 Week 22: Health policy speeches; Fred Thompson moves toward candidacy.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI24.2-3.14%
ROMNEY2300%
THOMPSON(F)24.62.71%
MCCAIN17.1-0.94%
GINGRICH2.5-0.44%
HUCKABEE2-0.25%
PAUL2.20.918%
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON51-0.11%
OBAMA27.5-11%
GORE10.50.82%
EDWARDS7.2-0.11%
RICHRDSN2.3-0.64%
BIDEN0.50n.m.
CLARK0.50n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM8006%
GOP15053%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM55.1-0.73%
GOP41.5-0.20%
OTH3.50.96%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA27.50.520%
RICHARDSON16.2085%
GORE121.925%
BAYH10250%
EDWARDS9.3060%
CLARK7.70.1212%
NUNN5.2083%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.