Home starts and foreclosures this week indicate that the national housing markets remain stressed, but not getting rapidly worse.
Fixed mortgage rates have ticked up slightly in the past few weeks.
The futures markets appear to have reassessed the prospects for Los Angeles downward. However, these markets are extremely thinly traded, from what I can tell, so it is hard to make firm conclusions.
Case-Shiller Real Estate Index Contract Futures by Month
% rise or fall from last Index reading
| FUTURES | 08Feb | 08May | 08Aug | 08Nov | 09Feb | 09May | 09Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite | -2% | -4% | -7% | -9% | -9% | -9% | -14% |
| Boston | -2% | -5% | -6% | -6% | -8% | -9% | -12% |
| Chicago | -1% | -2% | -3% | -4% | -4% | -5% | -6% |
| Denver | -2% | -3% | -4% | -7% | -8% | -9% | -12% |
| Las Vegas | -4% | -6% | -7% | -9% | -10% | -12% | -13% |
| Los Angeles | -3% | -6% | -8% | -12% | -14% | -11% | -16% |
| Miami | -4% | -7% | -11% | -14% | -15% | -18% | -18% |
| New York | -2% | -3% | -6% | -6% | -8% | -9% | -11% |
| San Diego | -2% | -4% | -6% | -6% | -8% | -10% | -12% |
| San Francisco | -3% | -5% | -6% | -7% | -10% | -13% | -15% |
| Washington | -3% | -5% | -6% | -8% | -8% | -10% | -11% |
| Changes since Nov-28 | 08Feb | 08May | 08Aug | 08Nov | 09Feb | 09May | 09Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite | 0% | 0% | -1% | -2% | -1% | 0% | -4% |
| Boston | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Chicago | 0% | -1% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Denver | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Las Vegas | -1% | 0% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Los Angeles | 0% | -1% | -2% | -5% | -6% | -2% | -6% |
| Miami | -1% | -1% | -1% | 0% | -1% | -2% | -1% |
| New York | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| San Diego | 0% | -1% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| San Francisco | -1% | -1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Washington | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Changes include changes to term interest rates, that may affect futures prices.
RealtyTrac suggests that the real test for foreclosure rates will come in the next quarter, which makes sense if there are seasonal patterns and Nov-Dec is a seasonally weak period.
Many of the foreclosure series have months during which the foreclosure rate spikes.
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