Saturday, April 28, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 17

THE NUMBERS

Not too much change in the numbers, except that Gore remains remarkably well bid. The races haven't widened or narrowed appreciably (most of the changes in the period include changes in the bid-ask, rather than shifts among the candidates).

THE STRATEGIES

I've been starting to think about scenarios in which an independent candidate runs, including what might happen if McCain were to do a Joe Lieberman (not sure he'd have the financial support to do that).

The strategy outlined a while back gave back ground, completely on the democratic side, largely as Gore picked up ground rather than losing it.

The entry point to a short strategy on Fred Thompson, which I thought might be on near the date of his announcement as a candidate, may have passed. The more Guiliani stands up to the ongoing vetting, the less likely that Thompson will be a significant runner, "the insurance candidate", perhaps.


Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)24.30.38%
OBAMA21.92.40%
GIULIANI15-117%
McCAIN12013%
THOMPSON(F)107.715%
GORE8.20.444%
ROMNEY7.2-0.68%
2007 Week 17: Dems hold their first debate (Hilary reported to do well); McCain makes news on Daily Show with John Stewart; Petreus in Washington with early reports on Baghdad Security Plan.; Senate/House vote timetable on Iraq.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI30.8-2.24%
MCCAIN20.31.11%
THOMPSON(F)14.2-1.411%
ROMNEY15.4-2.31%
GINGRICH3.10.13%
HAGEL2.3-0.74%
HUCKABEE2.30.44%
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON47.8-0.30%
OBAMA311.54%
GORE11.42.13%
EDWARDS7.6-0.61%
RICHRDSN2.6-0.84%
CLARK0.50n.m.
BIDEN0.50.2n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM8026%
GOP15033%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM56.501%
GOP42.800%
OTH0.70.5n.m.

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 15

THE NUMBERS

Fred Thompson drops. Gore suprisingly strong.

THE STRATEGIES

Nothing new this week. Old strategies remain unchanged.

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)24-0.713%
OBAMA19.5-0.513%
GIULIANI160.26%
McCAIN12-0.715%
ROMNEY7.80.88%
GORE7.801%
EDWARDS4063%
2007 Week 15: F. Thompson discloses cancer; McCain gives much talked about Iraq speech; Newt debates Kerry on climate; Bill Richardson on mission to North Korea.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI333.92%
MCCAIN19.21.31%
ROMNEY17.71.21%
THOMPSON(F)15.6-4.46%
HAGEL30.617%
GINGRICH3-0.913%
HUCKABEE1.90.2n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON48.10.10%
OBAMA29.5-2.51%
GORE9.30.94%
EDWARDS8.211%
RICHRDSN3.4-0.23%
CLARK0.50n.m.
BIDEN0.3-0.3n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM7814%
GOP15-333%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM56.501%
GOP42.8-0.20%
OTH0.20.1n.m.
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Remember the magical "Ownership Society"?

Despite much enthusiasm for the purported efficiency-alignments of the "ownership society", I haven't seen much support cropping up for Sam Zell's reported proposal to take the Tribune companies private using an ESOP plan.


Becker-Posner tow a hard line on ESOPs, in general. Others, like Mankiw, probably won't say, one way or the other. Becker might include studies that look at significant non-ESOP ownership, including restricted-stock and incentive-stock option plans.


I think that the truth is that employee ownership within companies can be a powerful force, if and when other incentives are aligned within the firm such that people feel that they will 'unlock wealth' by this or that action. There are cultural aspects to 'ownership' within a company. If managers tolerate each other running departments as fiefdoms whose inefficiencies and brand-consuming behaviors (rather than brand-building) accrue to their benefit, then putting ownership interests in the lower echelons will probably just create conflict.


Sam Zell is no chump. It's an experiment worth watching, IMO.

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 14

THE NUMBERS

Obama and Thompson are the moving-uppers in the week. Clinton holds, but Giuliani skids (just over nine points).

The GOP race widens even further, with the top three losing an eye-popping 11% of the overall distribution in the last week.

THE STRATEGIES

The strategy outlined three weeks or so ago turned up another 1.3 points (6.2 so far), before trading costs, as Al Gore's skid accelerated in the week.

It stands to reason that there is going to be some further dramatic shake out on the GOP side, unless that you believe that Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, and Romney will dead-heat it all the way to super Tuesday. The big re-sort, barring further vetting issues, might be the Iowa straw polls in August. But here is what Zogby printed in the last week, based on his telphone polls

Pollster John Zogby: “There are two clear front–runners in this Republican race. The fact the race is pretty tight here in Iowa makes New Hampshire even more important as this race develops. There are two big questions surrounding this race – who is the alternative to step into the top tier should one of these two falter, and who will be The Great Conservative Candidate?

This suggests to me that if you want to play for big returns on the GOP side, you have to make a decision fairly soon about whether it is Giuliani or McCain that is going to go the distance to super Tuesday.

That's too hard a call for my simple mind. Instead, I continue to want to make a bet against F. Thompson, just waiting for the right point. I think he is pretty late to the game.


Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)24.7013%
OBAMA202.725%
GIULIANI15.8-2.720%
McCAIN12.7-0.59%
GORE7.8-0.21%
ROMNEY7-0.220%
EDWARDS4063%
2007 Week 14: Fundraising figures come out: Dems ahead, but Romney war-chest strong, Obama proves, McCain lags; Tommy Thompson announces on ABC's "This Week"; Giuliani confirms prior view that a just implementation of the law implies poor women cannot be completely cut out from medical prcedures, including abortion; McCain makes surreal walkabout in Baghdad.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI29.1-9.23%
MCCAIN17.9-2.23%
ROMNEY16.50.23%
THOMPSON(F)205.49%
HAGEL2.40.225%
GINGRICH3.90.53%
HUCKABEE1.70.7n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON48-1.30%
OBAMA325.61%
GORE8.4-2.215%
EDWARDS7.2-0.68%
RICHRDSN3.6-0.23%
BIDEN0.60.2n.m.
CLARK0.50n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM7705%
GOP18328%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM56.50.51%
GOP430.20%
OTH0.1-0.8n.m.

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.