THE NUMBERS
The GOP race continued to widen, with the jump-up of Thompson in the rankings. Clinton moved ahead just a little more and Edwards recovered some of the ground lost in the prior week. (Thompson is not yet included on the Presidential contract).
THE STRATEGIES
Huckabee fell sharply in the week, and other small hopefuls slid as well, including Hagel and Brownback, but just by tenths. All told, the strategy outlined two weeks ago added another 1%, before trading costs.
The Thompson jump-up must be instructive to Newt Gingrich, who has yet to generate excitement like that.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 24.7 | 1 | 1% | | GIULIANI | 18.5 | -1.5 | 19% | | OBAMA | 17.3 | -1.1 | 13% | | McCAIN | 13.2 | 1.1 | 12% | | GORE | 8 | 0.5 | 1% | | ROMNEY | 7.2 | 0.1 | 10% | | EDWARDS | 4 | 0 | 50% |
| 2007 Week 13: Clinton/Obama in front of unions; Giuliani vetting reaches Kerik, views on his wife's role; McCain mistakenly calls some Baghdad neighborhoods "safe"; Kyle Sampson indicates AG's statements "not accurate"; Dobson not so humbly informs the Nation that Thompson is not a Christian, a hurricane of fundraising.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 38.3 | -2.2 | 1% | | MCCAIN | 20.1 | 0 | 2% | | ROMNEY | 16.3 | -0.2 | 2% | | THOMPSON(F) | 14.6 | 4.5 | 20% | | HAGEL | 2.2 | -0.1 | 27% | | GINGRICH | 3.4 | 0.1 | 32% | | HUCKABEE | 1 | -1.8 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 49.3 | 2.3 | 0% | | OBAMA | 26.4 | -3 | 7% | | GORE | 10.6 | -0.1 | 1% | | EDWARDS | 7.8 | 1 | 5% | | RICHRDSN | 3.8 | -0.6 | 5% | | CLARK | 0.5 | 0.2 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.4 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 77 | 0 | 5% | | GOP | 15 | -2.5 | 53% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 56 | -0.1 | 0% | | GOP | 42.8 | 0.2 | 0% | | OTH | 0.9 | -0.3 | n.m. |
|
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
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