Just the Numbers: Week 14

THE NUMBERS

Obama and Thompson are the moving-uppers in the week. Clinton holds, but Giuliani skids (just over nine points).

The GOP race widens even further, with the top three losing an eye-popping 11% of the overall distribution in the last week.

THE STRATEGIES

The strategy outlined three weeks or so ago turned up another 1.3 points (6.2 so far), before trading costs, as Al Gore's skid accelerated in the week.

It stands to reason that there is going to be some further dramatic shake out on the GOP side, unless that you believe that Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, and Romney will dead-heat it all the way to super Tuesday. The big re-sort, barring further vetting issues, might be the Iowa straw polls in August. But here is what Zogby printed in the last week, based on his telphone polls

Pollster John Zogby: “There are two clear front–runners in this Republican race. The fact the race is pretty tight here in Iowa makes New Hampshire even more important as this race develops. There are two big questions surrounding this race – who is the alternative to step into the top tier should one of these two falter, and who will be The Great Conservative Candidate?

This suggests to me that if you want to play for big returns on the GOP side, you have to make a decision fairly soon about whether it is Giuliani or McCain that is going to go the distance to super Tuesday.

That's too hard a call for my simple mind. Instead, I continue to want to make a bet against F. Thompson, just waiting for the right point. I think he is pretty late to the game.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 24.7 0 13% OBAMA 20 2.7 25% GIULIANI 15.8 -2.7 20% McCAIN 12.7 -0.5 9% GORE 7.8 -0.2 1% ROMNEY 7 -0.2 20% EDWARDS 4 0 63%	2007 Week 14: Fundraising figures come out: Dems ahead, but Romney war-chest strong, Obama proves, McCain lags; Tommy Thompson announces on ABC's "This Week"; Giuliani confirms prior view that a just implementation of the law implies poor women cannot be completely cut out from medical prcedures, including abortion; McCain makes surreal walkabout in Baghdad.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask GIULIANI 29.1 -9.2 3% MCCAIN 17.9 -2.2 3% ROMNEY 16.5 0.2 3% THOMPSON(F) 20 5.4 9% HAGEL 2.4 0.2 25% GINGRICH 3.9 0.5 3% HUCKABEE 1.7 0.7 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 48 -1.3 0% OBAMA 32 5.6 1% GORE 8.4 -2.2 15% EDWARDS 7.2 -0.6 8% RICHRDSN 3.6 -0.2 3% BIDEN 0.6 0.2 n.m. CLARK 0.5 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 77 0 5% GOP 18 3 28%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 56.5 0.5 1% GOP 43 0.2 0% OTH 0.1 -0.8 n.m.

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

[+/-] Show Full Post...

[+/-] Hide Full Post...