2008 Just the Numbers: Week 12

THE NUMBERS

Fred Thompson gained again in the week, with most of it coming from McCain on the bid side of the market. Clinton gained slightly from Edwards' loss.

The GOP side of the race widened slightly, with just over 2% falling off of the top three probability. The converse occurred on the Democratic side, where the top three picked up.

THE STRATEGIES

The strategy mentioned last week picked up about 3.8% in the week, before trading costs. If one thinks that the Thompson thing is a fling, then there is now an additional 10% there. I'm not sure he could raise the money he needs now, with others having gotten a head start.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 23.7 -0.1 10% GIULIANI 20 0 10% OBAMA 18.4 2.4 8% McCAIN 12.1 3.1 14% GORE 7.5 0.4 9% ROMNEY 7.1 0.1 11% EDWARDS 4 -2 50%	2007 Week 12: House passes budget calling for end to combat role by Fall '08; White House and Congress tussle over subpoenas in DOJ firings; Edwards announces wife's cancer no longer in remission.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask GIULIANI 40.5 0.4 1% MCCAIN 20.1 -1.9 0% ROMNEY 16.5 0.4 3% THOMPSON(F) 10.1 3.1 8% GINGRICH 3.3 -0.4 18% HUCKABEE 2.8 0.3 4% HAGEL 2.3 0 30%	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 47 2.1 2% OBAMA 29.4 -0.3 5% GORE 10.7 0.3 7% EDWARDS 6.8 -2.1 9% RICHRDSN 4.4 0.4 5% BIDEN 0.4 -0.6 n.m. CLARK 0.3 -0.1 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 77 2 7% GOP 17.5 1.5 31%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 56.1 0 2% GOP 42.6 0 0% OTH 1.2 -0.2 n.m.

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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