Saturday, November 8, 2008

The Depression Has Been Cancelled?

"Everyone" appears to have focused on the U.S. labor report on Friday, but missed mention that consumer credit (as best as we can measure it) actually grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in September, a figure also reported on Friday.

Nevertheless, that of course doesn't mean that the risks of a sharp downturn are past or over. Policy makers should plan for the worst, even while hoping for the best. Yet, if we are going to have a swift, nasty consumer-deleveraging contraction, we can now say that it isn't 100% in the cards yet, with two-to-three more cards to draw, now, in order to make that hand ...

If doomsayers can pin their "fears" of a depression on a single negative number from the prior period, why can't others pin their "hopes" on a single number, too, eh?

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