Trying a new visualization.
[This doesn't render correctly in Internet Explorer. Very hard to tell why. Use Firefox.]
These figures are from intrade. Purple is for anything from 45-55, on this rendering.
Because these are win/loss contracts, the numbers do not approximate the actual vote (as would a field poll), but the probability of win/loss. This accentuates the blue-red divide ...
| State | DEM | REP | Chng Wk. Dem/Rep | Bid-Ask. Dem/Rep | Elec. Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. | 95 | 3.7 | 0/0 | 1%/35% | 0 |
| Illinois | 95 | 4 | 0/0 | 1%/25% | 21 |
| Massachusetts | 93 | 6.5 | 0/0 | 1%/8% | 12 |
| Hawaii | 92 | 3 | -4/1 | 2%/233% | 4 |
| New York | 92 | 6 | 6/1 | 2%/100% | 31 |
| Rhode Island | 92 | 5 | 1/3 | 3%/100% | 4 |
| Washington | 90 | 5.1 | 5/0 | 4%/96% | 11 |
| Maryland | 90 | 5.5 | -1/-1.5 | 3%/45% | 10 |
| California | 88 | 10 | 1/2 | 5%/45% | 55 |
| Delaware | 87 | 6 | 1/0 | 8%/108% | 3 |
| Vermont | 86 | 6 | 0/0 | 9%/117% | 3 |
| New Jersey | 86 | 8 | -0.5/2 | 3%/69% | 15 |
| Connecticut | 85 | 10 | -5/2.3 | 12%/30% | 7 |
| Oregon | 85 | 10 | 5/0 | 6%/90% | 7 |
| Maine | 83 | 10 | 1/0 | 8%/70% | 4 |
| Iowa | 82 | 16 | 7/-4.1 | 1%/38% | 7 |
| Minnesota | 78 | 18 | 4/-2 | 9%/16% | 10 |
| Wisconsin | 77 | 15 | 10.9/-15 | 10%/60% | 10 |
| Pennsylvania | 75 | 23 | 6/4.9 | 7%/8% | 21 |
| Michigan | 70 | 29 | 0/4 | 6%/3% | 17 |
| Colorado | 66.5 | 30 | 5.9/-5 | 5%/15% | 9 |
| New Mexico | 62 | 34 | 1.8/1 | 10%/15% | 5 |
| Ohio | 60.5 | 39 | -1/1 | 4%/1% | 20 |
| New Hampshire | 50.1 | 46 | 4.1/0 | 16%/8% | 4 |
| Virginia | 50 | 45.1 | 4/-5.4 | 4%/18% | 13 |
| Nevada | 48.5 | 50.5 | 1.5/0.4 | 2%/7% | 5 |
| Missouri | 41 | 55 | 5/-5.5 | 10%/9% | 11 |
| North Carolina | 23.5 | 70 | 5.5/-5 | 27%/13% | 15 |
| Florida | 28 | 71 | 7.9/1 | 4%/6% | 27 |
| Alaska | 8 | 75 | 3/-10 | 74%/23% | 3 |
| Indiana | 18.5 | 75 | 2.5/-5 | 35%/8% | 11 |
| Arkansas | 15.1 | 76 | -6.9/0.4 | 59%/12% | 6 |
| Mississippi | 10 | 80 | 4/-6 | 100%/11% | 6 |
| West Virginia | 10 | 80 | -5/5 | 90%/13% | 5 |
| Nebraska | 15 | 80 | 5/0 | 27%/11% | 5 |
| Kansas | 10.5 | 80.1 | 0/-5.9 | 38%/12% | 6 |
| Georgia | 12.5 | 81.1 | 2.4/1.1 | 59%/6% | 15 |
| Montana | 15.2 | 82 | 5.2/2 | 32%/1% | 3 |
| Louisiana | 10.5 | 84 | -1.5/0 | 90%/7% | 9 |
| Texas | 6 | 85 | 1/0 | 150%/9% | 34 |
| North Dakota | 7 | 85 | -3/0 | 113%/9% | 3 |
| South Dakota | 7 | 85 | 2/0 | 114%/9% | 3 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | 85.1 | 0/0.1 | 129%/9% | 11 |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 86 | 5/0 | 30%/5% | 7 |
| Wyoming | 3.5 | 90 | -1.5/0 | 186%/6% | 3 |
| South Carolina | 7 | 90 | -4/1.9 | 100%/3% | 8 |
| Arizona | 8 | 90 | 1/0 | 25%/7% | 10 |
| Utah | 6.9 | 90 | -0.6/0 | 45%/7% | 5 |
| Kentucky | 9 | 90 | 1.5/0 | 9%/5% | 8 |
| Idaho | 2 | 90 | 0/0 | 400%/6% | 4 |
| Alabama | 6 | 92 | -1.5/2 | 33%/8% | 9 |
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