Just the Numbers: Week 4

THE NUMBERS

The rise of McCain has been phenomenal (just past eight weeks = 7x a down-in-the-dust "investment" in him!). In the past eight weeks, he has traded places with Giuliani's numbers (Rudy, once at 46, is now at 9).

The South Carolina loss has shut down bulls on Huckabee almost completely. The Michigan win has greatly revived the Romney figures.

THE STRATEGIES

My guess - and it is speculative - is that McCain will win in Florida. Accordingly, the McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama combos look really, really attractive.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 45 7.8 2% GIULIANI 4.2 -3 14% OBAMA 15.5 -9.1 5% HUCKABEE 0.8 -3.6 n.m. ROMNEY 11.4 7.9 4% McCAIN 18 -0.1 6% PAUL 1 0.4 n.m.	2008 Week 4: Thompson withdraws; Kucinich withdraws. Obama-Clinton do slugfest in S. Carolina; GOP debate in Florida.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask MCCAIN 49.6 2.5 0% ROMNEY 34.5 25.9 7% GIULIANI 9.2 -11.4 17% HUCKABEE 3 -11.1 3% PAUL 1.7 -0.5 n.m. RICE 0.4 0 n.m. GINGRICH 0.4 0 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 66.7 10.7 1% OBAMA 31.7 -8.4 3% GORE 0.9 0 n.m. EDWARDS 0.7 -0.8 n.m. RICHRDSN 0.1 0 n.m. BIDEN 0 0 n.m. DODD 0 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 88 3 7% GOP 5.1 -0.1 92%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 61.1 -1.4 3% GOP 35.2 -0.3 3% OTH 2.7 0.7 4%
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 20.1 8.6 18% BAYH 11 -2.6 22% FIELD 20 -1 3% RICHARDSON 10.6 0.4 12% GORE 12.4 1 1% CLARK 7.6 -2.5 63% WEBB 1.7 -1.3 n.m.	DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask FIELD 30.3 0.2 19% HUCKABEE 22.7 2.2 7% PAWLENTY 9.5 3 53% THOMPSON(F) 10.9 6.2 16% GIULIANI 6 3.5 15% GINGRICH 1.8 -4.5 n.m. BUSH(J) 0.2 -1.8 n.m.
President Parley Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON-McCAIN 37.3 13.3 4% OBAMA-McCAIN 14.2 -4.8 5% CLINTON-GIULIAN 4 -8.5 50% OBAMA-GIULIANI 3.1 -3.9 29% CLINTON-HUCK 0.2 -6.8 n.m. OBAMA-HUCKABEE 0.3 -5.2 n.m. CLINTON-ROMNEY 21 16 33% OBAMA-ROMNEY 9 4.9 56%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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