Friday, January 25, 2008

Just the Numbers: Week 4

THE NUMBERS

The rise of McCain has been phenomenal (just past eight weeks = 7x a down-in-the-dust "investment" in him!). In the past eight weeks, he has traded places with Giuliani's numbers (Rudy, once at 46, is now at 9).

The South Carolina loss has shut down bulls on Huckabee almost completely. The Michigan win has greatly revived the Romney figures.

THE STRATEGIES

My guess - and it is speculative - is that McCain will win in Florida. Accordingly, the McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama combos look really, really attractive.

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)457.82%
GIULIANI4.2-314%
OBAMA15.5-9.15%
HUCKABEE0.8-3.6n.m.
ROMNEY11.47.94%
McCAIN18-0.16%
PAUL10.4n.m.
2008 Week 4: Thompson withdraws; Kucinich withdraws. Obama-Clinton do slugfest in S. Carolina; GOP debate in Florida.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
MCCAIN49.62.50%
ROMNEY34.525.97%
GIULIANI9.2-11.417%
HUCKABEE3-11.13%
PAUL1.7-0.5n.m.
RICE0.40n.m.
GINGRICH0.40n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON66.710.71%
OBAMA31.7-8.43%
GORE0.90n.m.
EDWARDS0.7-0.8n.m.
RICHRDSN0.10n.m.
BIDEN00n.m.
DODD00n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM8837%
GOP5.1-0.192%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM61.1-1.43%
GOP35.2-0.33%
OTH2.70.74%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA20.18.618%
BAYH11-2.622%
FIELD20-13%
RICHARDSON10.60.412%
GORE12.411%
CLARK7.6-2.563%
WEBB1.7-1.3n.m.
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
FIELD30.30.219%
HUCKABEE22.72.27%
PAWLENTY9.5353%
THOMPSON(F)10.96.216%
GIULIANI63.515%
GINGRICH1.8-4.5n.m.
BUSH(J)0.2-1.8n.m.
President ParleyPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON-McCAIN37.313.34%
OBAMA-McCAIN14.2-4.85%
CLINTON-GIULIAN4-8.550%
OBAMA-GIULIANI3.1-3.929%
CLINTON-HUCK0.2-6.8n.m.
OBAMA-HUCKABEE0.3-5.2n.m.
CLINTON-ROMNEY211633%
OBAMA-ROMNEY94.956%
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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