Saturday, February 2, 2008

Just the Numbers: Week 5

THE NUMBERS

The Dem race tightens. The GOP race widens. The betting suggest no odds-on favorite in a Clinton-McCain match-up.

THE STRATEGIES

Huckabee VP contract looks kinda low. If he cleans up in the South, as expected, he'd be a prime candidate for a ticket. I think he'd want the job, too.

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)36-91%
McCAIN35.917.90%
OBAMA22.46.92%
ROMNEY3.3-8.19%
PAUL0.7-0.3n.m.
GORE0.6-0.2n.m.
BLOOMBERG0.6-1.7n.m.
2008 Week 5: Dems Debate in California; Florida Primary; GOP/Dems debate @ Reagan library.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
MCCAIN87.437.80%
ROMNEY7.7-26.85%
GIULIANI1-8.2n.m.
HUCKABEE1-2n.m.
PAUL1.6-0.1n.m.
RICE0.3-0.1n.m.
GINGRICH0.2-0.2n.m.
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON61.1-5.61%
OBAMA386.33%
GORE0.90n.m.
EDWARDS0.2-0.5n.m.
RICHRDSN0-0.1n.m.
BIDEN00n.m.
DODD00n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM86.2-1.89%
GOP82.923%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM61.101%
GOP38.63.41%
OTH1.2-1.5n.m.
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA21.112%
BAYH10-120%
FIELD21115%
RICHARDSON6-4.670%
GORE11.1-1.35%
CLARK10.73.150%
WEBB3.7230%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
FIELD354.71%
HUCKABEE21.1-1.627%
PAWLENTY199.54%
THOMPSON(F)5.5-5.442%
GIULIANI6.30.3103%
GINGRICH0.2-1.6n.m.
BUSH(J)0.1-0.1n.m.
President ParleyPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON-McCAIN56.118.85%
OBAMA-McCAIN27.513.316%
CLINTON-GIULIAN0.5-3.5n.m.
OBAMA-GIULIANI0.2-2.9n.m.
CLINTON-HUCK0.1-0.1n.m.
OBAMA-HUCKABEE0.2-0.1n.m.
CLINTON-ROMNEY3-18130%
OBAMA-ROMNEY2-7140%
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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