THE NUMBERS
Post Iowa, McCain, not Obama, is the biggest mover. Clinton is the biggest loser.
THE STRATEGIES
There was some money to be made int he VP contracts that I missed.
McCain may pick up a lot of independents in N.H., where they relate to his ruggedly independent persona. That may make it a harder state than Iowa for Obama. However, he is not projected to win the primary in the Granite State.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 31.5 | -12.5 | 6% | | GIULIANI | 10.1 | -1.8 | 5% | | OBAMA | 25.1 | 11.5 | 7% | | HUCKABEE | 5.6 | 1.3 | 4% | | ROMNEY | 6.3 | -1.7 | 10% | | McCAIN | 13.3 | 4.7 | 12% | | PAUL | 3.1 | -0.1 | 3% |
| 2008 Week 1: Huckabee gets a miracle; Obama has answered prayers; McCain gets a reprieve. Everyone else still on the ropes, except dropouts Biden, Dodd, and Gravel.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| MCCAIN | 31.5 | 13.4 | 1% | | GIULIANI | 26.4 | -3.9 | 13% | | ROMNEY | 14.1 | -8.3 | 10% | | HUCKABEE | 16.1 | 1.6 | 1% | | PAUL | 4.8 | -1.6 | 17% | | THOMPSON(F) | 2.7 | -0.4 | 22% | | RICE | 0.3 | -0.3 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 51 | -16 | 5% | | OBAMA | 43.1 | 19.7 | 3% | | GORE | 1.5 | -0.6 | n.m. | | EDWARDS | 2.4 | -2.8 | 4% | | RICHRDSN | 0.3 | 0.1 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. | | DODD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 85.1 | 1.8 | 5% | | GOP | 5.2 | -4.8 | 90% |
| |
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 4.6 | -2.2 | 72% | | BAYH | 16.8 | -0.2 | 5% | | FIELD | 13.6 | 0 | 2% | | RICHARDSON | 14 | 2.2 | 6% | | GORE | 7.8 | -1.4 | 26% | | CLARK | 12.2 | 0 | 9% | | WEBB | 3 | -1.2 | 80% |
| | DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| FIELD | 30 | 6.7 | 33% | | HUCKABEE | 10 | -11.1 | 99% | | PAWLENTY | 7.1 | -0.1 | 38% | | THOMPSON(F) | 2.5 | -0.1 | 164% | | GIULIANI | 5.5 | 1.6 | 24% | | GINGRICH | 6.3 | 0 | 2% | | BUSH(J) | 3 | 0.5 | 87% |
|
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 14.5 | -8.5 | 17% | | CLINTON-ROMNEY | 3.1 | -12.4 | 203% | | OBAMA-GIULIANI | 9.1 | 1.1 | 109% | | CLINTON-HUCK | 7.5 | -1.5 | 23% | | OBAMA-HUCKABEE | 8 | 2.4 | 25% | | OBAMA-ROMNEY | 3.1 | -4.9 | 219% | | CLINTON-McCAIN | 15.7 | 4.4 | 8% | | OBAMA-McCAIN | 13.1 | 8.1 | 91% |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 33.1 | -21.9 | 32% |
| OBAMA | 65 | 30 | 6% |
| EDWARDS | 0.2 | -1.4 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 23 | -24 | 6% |
| GIULIANI | 0.3 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.2 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 3.5 | -3 | 166% |
| HUCKABEE | 1.2 | -2.6 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 70 | 43.7 | 3% |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 10 | -30.1 | 337% |
| OBAMA | 62.1 | 12.1 | 37% |
| EDWARDS | 2 | 0.7 | 95% |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | 181% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 8 | -2 | 49% |
| GIULIANI | 1.1 | -4.2 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5.1 | -2 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 40 | -12 | 67% |
| MCCAIN | 30 | 19.9 | n.m. |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 30 | -40.1 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 18.1 | 3 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -1.9 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | 188% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 6.8 | -0.2 | 148% |
| GIULIANI | 46.3 | 0.2 | 449% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 2.1 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 15 | -6 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 20.1 | 10 | n.m. |
| New Jersey Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 20 | 20 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 0 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -0.9 | 39% |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5.1 | 0 | 463% |
| GIULIANI | 65.1 | 14.9 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1.1 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 10 | 2 | 649% |
| Nevada Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 25.1 | -9.9 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 16.6 | 11.5 | 260% |
| EDWARDS | 0.5 | -0.5 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 21 | 4.8 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 25 | -0.6 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 2 | -4.1 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 15 | 9.4 | n.m. |
| Pennsylvania Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 20 | -30 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 0 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 60 | -5.2 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1 | -4 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 6 | -4.5 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 9.1 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| California Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 20 | -30 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 14 | 4 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 0.1 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 10.2 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 50 | -4.9 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.5 | -4.5 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 8 | -2.1 | n.m. |
| Michigan Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 20.1 | -19.9 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | 0 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 2 | 2 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.4 | 0.4 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 11.1 | -29 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 1 | -4.1 | n.m. |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.8 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 35.1 | 14.5 | n.m. |
|
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