Just the Numbers: Week 2

THE NUMBERS

Just a quick peek (no time for more).

McCain is the biggest winner, still, on a percentage basis.

THE STRATEGIES

One pundit put it best. McCain is "The Survivor" candidate - he represents everyone's second choice. Which means he could win it.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 37.2 5.7 1% GIULIANI 7.2 -2.9 6% OBAMA 24.6 -0.5 2% HUCKABEE 4.4 -1.2 5% ROMNEY 3.5 -2.8 3% McCAIN 18.1 4.8 7% PAUL 0.6 -2.5 n.m.	2008 Week 2: IA Primary goes for Huckabee & Obama; NH goes for McCain & Clinton.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask MCCAIN 47.1 15.6 1% GIULIANI 20.6 -5.8 1% HUCKABEE 14.1 -2 6% ROMNEY 8.6 -5.5 9% PAUL 2.2 -2.6 9% THOMPSON(F) 3.5 0.8 6% GINGRICH 0.4 0 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 56 5 2% OBAMA 40.1 -3 2% GORE 0.9 -0.6 n.m. EDWARDS 1.5 -0.9 n.m. RICHRDSN 0.1 -0.2 n.m. BIDEN 0 -0.1 n.m. DODD 0 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 85 -0.1 11% GOP 5.2 0 90%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 62.5 1.8 0% GOP 35.5 -1.5 5% OTH 2 -0.1 5%
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 11.5 6.9 8% BAYH 13.6 -3.2 8% FIELD 21 7.4 13% RICHARDSON 10.2 -3.8 34% GORE 11.4 3.6 22% CLARK 10.1 -2.1 12% WEBB 3 0 97%	DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask FIELD 30.1 0.1 46% HUCKABEE 20.5 10.5 7% PAWLENTY 6.5 -0.6 52% THOMPSON(F) 4.7 2.2 304% GIULIANI 2.5 -3 172% GINGRICH 6.3 0 6% BUSH(J) 2 -1 170%
President Parley Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON-McCAIN 24 8.3 21% OBAMA-McCAIN 19 5.9 18% CLINTON-GIULIAN 12.5 -2 26% OBAMA-GIULIANI 7 -2.1 57% CLINTON-HUCK 7 -0.5 26% OBAMA-HUCKABEE 5.5 -2.5 44% CLINTON-ROMNEY 5 1.9 398% OBAMA-ROMNEY 4.1 1 178%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/Candidate	Pr (%)	Chg Wk.	bid-ask
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
OBAMA	75.8	13.7	0%
CLINTON	22.5	12.5	11%
EDWARDS	1.1	-0.9	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	50.5	20.5	7%
FIELD	42	2	7%
THOMPSON(F)	5	-0.1	80%
ROMNEY	1.6	-6.4	n.m.
GIULIANI	0.1	-1	n.m.
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	69	39	8%
OBAMA	25.5	7.4	37%
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	51	30.9	n.m.
GIULIANI	27	-19.3	n.m.
FIELD	15	0	n.m.
ROMNEY	1.5	-5.3	51%
THOMPSON(F)	1.1	-1	n.m.
New Jersey Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	60	39	22%
OBAMA	30	7.4	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	11%
Republican
GIULIANI	55	-19.3	100%
MCCAIN	17.5	30.9	n.m.
ROMNEY	5.1	-5.3	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.2	-1	n.m.
FIELD	0.1	0	1%
Nevada Caucus
Democratic
OBAMA	43	26.4	n.m.
CLINTON	33.7	8.6	0%
EDWARDS	0.1	-0.4	9%
FIELD	0	0	61%
Republican
MCCAIN	37	22	n.m.
ROMNEY	26	5	n.m.
GIULIANI	10	-15	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	1	-1	n.m.
Pennsylvania Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	50	30	n.m.
OBAMA	40	30	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	40	30.9	n.m.
GIULIANI	35	-25	n.m.
FIELD	10	10	n.m.
ROMNEY	5	0	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.3	-0.7	n.m.
California Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	45	25	n.m.
OBAMA	45	31	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	45	37	n.m.
GIULIANI	31	-19	n.m.
FIELD	10	10	n.m.
ROMNEY	5	-5.2	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.5	0	n.m.
Michigan Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	93.5	73.4	n.m.
FIELD	3.2	2.8	n.m.
OBAMA	0.8	-9.2	n.m.
EDWARDS	0	-2	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	67.5	32.4	n.m.
ROMNEY	23	11.9	n.m.
FIELD	5.6	5.6	n.m.
GIULIANI	0.1	-0.9	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0	-0.8	n.m.

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