Sunday, June 3, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 22

THE NUMBERS

Fred Thompson moves up, Giuliani moves down. Romney has not lost any strength.

THE STRATEGIES

I wondered aloud here about the possibility of a third-party or independent candidacy. The "field" option has been very slowly rising over the past weeks. The move seems not to be a blip any longer.

Richardson seems like a more likely VP candidate, if one is betting on Clinton, yes?

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)36.6-1.63%
OBAMA17.20.21%
THOMPSON(F)11.13.91%
GIULIANI1101%
McCAIN102.630%
ROMNEY9.80.812%
GORE80.61%
2007 Week 22: Health policy speeches; Fred Thompson moves toward candidacy.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI24.2-3.14%
ROMNEY2300%
THOMPSON(F)24.62.71%
MCCAIN17.1-0.94%
GINGRICH2.5-0.44%
HUCKABEE2-0.25%
PAUL2.20.918%
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON51-0.11%
OBAMA27.5-11%
GORE10.50.82%
EDWARDS7.2-0.11%
RICHRDSN2.3-0.64%
BIDEN0.50n.m.
CLARK0.50n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM8006%
GOP15053%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM55.1-0.73%
GOP41.5-0.20%
OTH3.50.96%
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA27.50.520%
RICHARDSON16.2085%
GORE121.925%
BAYH10250%
EDWARDS9.3060%
CLARK7.70.1212%
NUNN5.2083%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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