Just the Numbers: Week 22

THE NUMBERS

Fred Thompson moves up, Giuliani moves down. Romney has not lost any strength.

THE STRATEGIES

I wondered aloud here about the possibility of a third-party or independent candidacy. The "field" option has been very slowly rising over the past weeks. The move seems not to be a blip any longer.

Richardson seems like a more likely VP candidate, if one is betting on Clinton, yes?

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 36.6 -1.6 3% OBAMA 17.2 0.2 1% THOMPSON(F) 11.1 3.9 1% GIULIANI 11 0 1% McCAIN 10 2.6 30% ROMNEY 9.8 0.8 12% GORE 8 0.6 1%	2007 Week 22: Health policy speeches; Fred Thompson moves toward candidacy.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask GIULIANI 24.2 -3.1 4% ROMNEY 23 0 0% THOMPSON(F) 24.6 2.7 1% MCCAIN 17.1 -0.9 4% GINGRICH 2.5 -0.4 4% HUCKABEE 2 -0.2 5% PAUL 2.2 0.9 18%	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 51 -0.1 1% OBAMA 27.5 -1 1% GORE 10.5 0.8 2% EDWARDS 7.2 -0.1 1% RICHRDSN 2.3 -0.6 4% BIDEN 0.5 0 n.m. CLARK 0.5 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 80 0 6% GOP 15 0 53%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 55.1 -0.7 3% GOP 41.5 -0.2 0% OTH 3.5 0.9 6%
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 27.5 0.5 20% RICHARDSON 16.2 0 85% GORE 12 1.9 25% BAYH 10 2 50% EDWARDS 9.3 0 60% CLARK 7.7 0.1 212% NUNN 5.2 0 83%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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