THE NUMBERS
Thompson moves up strongly in the week to front-runner status, perhaps in an indication of how dissatisfied the party is with the current line-up.
McCain falls to lowest figures yet for his traded contract.
Romney appears to develop teflon coating, as he can say just about anything and his figures do not move. (This is what happens when you are "God's guy" not a guy who strives to do God's will?)
Gingrich, Brownback, Huckabee, and Richardson all hit new lows. Gore continues to hold onto 10%.
THE STRATEGIES
Sell Gore?
The strategy of selling the losers in the "third tier" has paid off about 10% since March. That's a decent enough return, if you can lock it in before trading costs.
If the numbers for Thompson are "real", then one has to seriously think that the next 'sell the losers' bet is a combo of Gore and McCain.
I cannot believe that Thompson has the time and organization to mount a serious challenge, so I'd view these numbers (on up into the 30s) as a good point to sell. Those with more electoral experience, of course, could prove me wrong - perhaps he has more viability than I'm giving him credit for?
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 34 | -2.6 | 2% | | OBAMA | 16.7 | -0.5 | 7% | | THOMPSON(F) | 14.8 | 3.7 | 7% | | GIULIANI | 11.4 | 0.4 | 21% | | ROMNEY | 10.3 | 0.5 | 5% | | GORE | 7.8 | -0.2 | 1% | | McCAIN | 6.5 | -3.5 | 37% |
| 2007 Week 23: Dems showcase their faith on CNN; Dems/GOP debates in NH; Giuliani gives a pass to Iowa; Thompson makes waves from side of the pool; Immigration Bill stalls in Senate. |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| THOMPSON(F) | 29 | 4.4 | 1% | | GIULIANI | 24.7 | 0.5 | 4% | | ROMNEY | 21.9 | -1.1 | 1% | | MCCAIN | 12.2 | -4.9 | 2% | | GINGRICH | 1.7 | -0.8 | n.m. | | PAUL | 1.3 | -0.9 | n.m. | | HUCKABEE | 1.1 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 49.6 | -1.4 | 1% | | OBAMA | 29.6 | 2.1 | 3% | | GORE | 10.5 | 0 | 2% | | EDWARDS | 6.1 | -1.1 | 5% | | RICHRDSN | 2 | -0.3 | 5% | | BIDEN | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. | | CLARK | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 80 | 0 | 5% | | GOP | 13 | -2 | 77% |
| |
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 33.1 | 5.6 | 0% | | RICHARDSON | 16.2 | 0 | 23% | | WARNER | 12 | 11.8 | 25% | | CLARK | 7.7 | 0 | 43% | | GORE | 6 | -6 | 72% | | WEBB | 3.7 | 0 | 116% | | VILSACK | 3 | -0.1 | 167% |
|
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
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