THE NUMBERS
Romney moved up sharply in the week, mostly at the expense of McCain.
Fred Thompson continues to run a solid non-campaign campaign.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 38.2 | -0.6 | 1% | | OBAMA | 17 | 0.3 | 3% | | GIULIANI | 11 | -1.1 | 27% | | ROMNEY | 9 | 3 | 8% | | GORE | 7.4 | -0.7 | 5% | | McCAIN | 7.4 | -4.7 | 55% | | THOMPSON(F) | 7.2 | -0.8 | 11% |
| 2007 Week 21: McCain and Romney trade barbs; Hillary gives first major policy speech (on health care); Supplemental GWOT bill pulls Dems to left on Iraq; Bush warns of al-qaeda at commencement address. |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 27.3 | -0.9 | 0% | | MCCAIN | 18 | -8.1 | 8% | | ROMNEY | 23 | 4.2 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 21.9 | 5.6 | 4% | | GINGRICH | 2.9 | -1.1 | 7% | | HAGEL | 1.2 | -1.1 | n.m. | | HUCKABEE | 2.2 | -0.1 | 5% |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 51.1 | -0.1 | 0% | | OBAMA | 28.5 | 0.2 | 6% | | GORE | 9.7 | 0.1 | 3% | | EDWARDS | 7.3 | -0.1 | 1% | | RICHRDSN | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3% | | BIDEN | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. | | CLARK | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 80 | -1 | 6% | | GOP | 15 | 0 | 53% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 55.8 | -0.2 | 2% | | GOP | 41.7 | -0.8 | 0% | | OTH | 2.6 | 0.3 | 4% |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 27 | 1 | 27% | | RICHARDSON | 16.2 | 0.1 | 104% | | GORE | 10.1 | 3.1 | 48% | | EDWARDS | 9.3 | 0 | 61% | | BAYH | 8 | 3.8 | 88% | | CLARK | 7.6 | 0 | 229% | | NUNN | 5.2 | 0 | 92% |
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src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
First peek at the 2008 Senate races. These contracts have very little traded volume, currently:
| DEM Senators | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Louisiana-Landrieu, Mary L. (D-LA) | 55 | 0 | 18% | | South Dakota-Johnson, Tim (D-SD) | 75 | 0 | 13% | | Iowa-Harkin, Tom (D-IA) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Montana-Baucus, Max (D-MT) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | New Jersey-Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Arkansas-Pryor, Mark L. (D-AR) | 85 | 0 | 12% | | Illinois-Durbin, Richard (D-IL) | 85 | 0 | 12% | | West Virginia-Rockefeller, John D., IV (D-WV) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Delaware-Biden, Joseph R., Jr. (D-DE) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Rhode Island-Reed, Jack (D-RI) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Michigan-Levin, Carl (D-MI) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Massachusetts-Kerry, John F. (D-MA) | 90 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| GOP Senators | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Colorado-Allard, Wayne (R-CO) | 40 | 0 | 25% | | New Hampshire-Sununu, John E. (R-NH) | 55 | 0 | 18% | | Virginia-Warner, John (R-VA) | 60 | 0 | 17% | | Minnesota-Coleman, Norm (R-MN) | 62 | 0 | 13% | | Maine-Collins, Susan M. (R-ME) | 65 | 0 | 15% | | Oregon-Smith, Gordon H. (R-OR) | 70 | 0 | 14% | | Oklahoma-Inhofe, James M. (R-OK) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Nebraska-Hagel, Chuck (R-NE) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Georgia-Chambliss, Saxby (R-GA) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Tennessee-Alexander, Lamar (R-TN) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | North Carolina-Dole, Elizabeth (R-NC) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Idaho-Craig, Larry E. (R-ID) | 80 | 0 | 13% | | Kentucky-McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) | 85 | 0 | 12% | | Alaska-Stevens, Ted (R-AK) | 85 | 0 | 12% | | South Carolina-Graham, Lindsey (R-SC) | 85 | 0 | 12% | | New Mexico-Domenici, Pete V. (R-NM) | 85 | 0 | 12% | | Texas-Cornyn, John (R-TX) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Wyoming-Enzi, Michael B. (R-WY) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Mississippi-Cochran, Thad (R-MS) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Alabama-Sessions, Jeff (R-AL) | 90 | 0 | n.m. | | Kansas-Roberts, Pat (R-KS) | 90 | 0 | n.m. |
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