THE NUMBERS
Not too much change in the numbers, except that Gore remains remarkably well bid. The races haven't widened or narrowed appreciably (most of the changes in the period include changes in the bid-ask, rather than shifts among the candidates).
THE STRATEGIES
I've been starting to think about scenarios in which an independent candidate runs, including what might happen if McCain were to do a Joe Lieberman (not sure he'd have the financial support to do that).
The strategy outlined a while back gave back ground, completely on the democratic side, largely as Gore picked up ground rather than losing it.
The entry point to a short strategy on Fred Thompson, which I thought might be on near the date of his announcement as a candidate, may have passed. The more Guiliani stands up to the ongoing vetting, the less likely that Thompson will be a significant runner, "the insurance candidate", perhaps.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 24.3 | 0.3 | 8% | | OBAMA | 21.9 | 2.4 | 0% | | GIULIANI | 15 | -1 | 17% | | McCAIN | 12 | 0 | 13% | | THOMPSON(F) | 10 | 7.7 | 15% | | GORE | 8.2 | 0.4 | 44% | | ROMNEY | 7.2 | -0.6 | 8% |
| 2007 Week 17: Dems hold their first debate (Hilary reported to do well); McCain makes news on Daily Show with John Stewart; Petreus in Washington with early reports on Baghdad Security Plan.; Senate/House vote timetable on Iraq. |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 30.8 | -2.2 | 4% | | MCCAIN | 20.3 | 1.1 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 14.2 | -1.4 | 11% | | ROMNEY | 15.4 | -2.3 | 1% | | GINGRICH | 3.1 | 0.1 | 3% | | HAGEL | 2.3 | -0.7 | 4% | | HUCKABEE | 2.3 | 0.4 | 4% |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 47.8 | -0.3 | 0% | | OBAMA | 31 | 1.5 | 4% | | GORE | 11.4 | 2.1 | 3% | | EDWARDS | 7.6 | -0.6 | 1% | | RICHRDSN | 2.6 | -0.8 | 4% | | CLARK | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.5 | 0.2 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 80 | 2 | 6% | | GOP | 15 | 0 | 33% |
| |
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
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