THE NUMBERS
Clinton has moved up sizeably in the rankings, with a strong bid even this week (check out graph via link). McCain's rebound is complete. (I haven't been tracking it carefully, but the volume/interest in the presidential contract has ticked up in the weeks since the last report).
On technical matters, the bid side of the market for the GOP nomination has firmed considerably. Any number of factors might account for this, including sheer buying interest. It may also reflect a sense that no new entrants to the race are likely, beyond those already being ranked, and/or that dropouts among the main candidates are increasingly less likely.
THE STRATEGIES
The prospect of an "independent" doesn't seem much in the numbers, apart from a blip in the 'OTH' category for the party of the next president. Aside from that, there may be something to looking at potential VP contracts (see last table), even though the volume in these contracts is very low and the bid-ask spreads, huge.
Gore, Edwards, Biden and Clark continue to represent 17% of the probability for the Dem nomination. Costs probably prevent bets against on Biden/Clark, but betting against a successful Gore or Edwards run to the tape still has legs, I'd estimate. Another way to bet against is to pick the set of winners (this can reduce trading costs). If one of the top two wins, Obama or Clinton, the payoff is 20% (but the payoff period may linger beyond super Tuesday...).
Hagel, Gingrich, Huckabee and Brownback represent just 9% of the probability for the GOP nomination. Brownback is out of it, but the others continue to offer prospects for betting against, perhaps even including trading costs. The top three (Romney, McCain, Giuliani) will pay off 28% against the field, which is more than the you can get on the Dem side.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 38.8 | 14.5 | 8% | | OBAMA | 16.7 | -5.2 | 3% | | GIULIANI | 12.1 | -2.9 | 44% | | McCAIN | 12.1 | 0.1 | 22% | | GORE | 8.1 | -0.1 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 8 | -2 | 11% | | ROMNEY | 6 | -1.2 | 43% |
| 2007 Week 20: GOP Candidates debate in South Carolina with post debate commentary largely about Ron Paul and FOX News continuing to press 'ticking bomb' as germane to general U.S. counterterrorism policy.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 28.2 | -2.6 | 4% | | MCCAIN | 26.1 | 5.8 | 5% | | ROMNEY | 18.8 | 3.4 | 6% | | THOMPSON(F) | 16.3 | 2.1 | 1% | | GINGRICH | 4 | 0.9 | 2% | | HAGEL | 2.3 | 0 | 30% | | HUCKABEE | 2.3 | 0 | 4% |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 51.2 | 3.4 | 1% | | OBAMA | 28.3 | -2.7 | 1% | | GORE | 9.6 | -1.8 | 4% | | EDWARDS | 7.4 | -0.2 | 7% | | RICHRDSN | 2.2 | -0.4 | 9% | | BIDEN | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. | | CLARK | 0.5 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 81 | 1 | 5% | | GOP | 15 | 0 | 33% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 56 | -0.5 | 0% | | GOP | 42.5 | -0.3 | 0% | | OTH | 2.3 | 1.6 | 13% |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 26 | 2.9 | 44% |
| RICHARDSON | 16.1 | -0.1 | 104% |
| EDWARDS | 9.3 | 4.3 | 61% |
| CLARK | 7.6 | 7.6 | 229% |
| GORE | 7 | 4.4 | -100% |
| NUNN | 5.2 | 0 | 92% |
| CLINTON(H) | 5 | 0 | 60% |
* "Chg Wk" is measured since last report, Week 17. src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via ealClearPolitics.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
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