Friday, October 31, 2008

Morning Roundup

  • Hopefully, you didn't lift your hedges too much or for too long. There is still a Republican in the White House.
    • GM will ... not get a lifeline...without a fight. Maybe it makes sense to give one after a bankruptcy declaration (when Cerberus is at bay?). That's the kind of deal that Neel's National Cash-n-Carry could execute, right?
    • Bush Administration is standing tall (like Hoover?), and it appears that the details of a plan to stall foreclosures, on the minds of many, will not be publicly vetted. Why close-to-the-vest is a good instinct is beyond me, assuming proposals meet a minimum level of competence.
    • Foot-dragging has an almost measurable price. Foreclosures look set to hit a new record (MICA) while the Administration debates and "hard looks" a problem that they should have thought through about a year ago or more.

  • Non-financial earnings of S&P500 companies are up a likely 9% or so in the quarter. That's not a depression. (bloomberg)
  • With energy cliff diving, housing prices lose a downdraft and affordability ticks up, but everyone will focus on data from datasets on home equity, despite that no one knows exactly how the estimates or done or has 'backed-out' the impact of record foreclosures depressing selling prices. Somehow the Federal Government (policy makers) didn't get into the data collection process early on in the crisis, so most of the datasets are ... private (so far as I can tell).
  • Wall Street is so top heavy, that it's executive payouts may exceed what is due to the entire workforce of some companies. The Wall Street Journal says its true, so ... curb your bias. Anyway, if it is true, then how can one say "no" to GM but "yes" to banking?

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