Just the Numbers: Week 4

THE NUMBERS

The rise of McCain has been phenomenal (just past eight weeks = 7x a down-in-the-dust "investment" in him!). In the past eight weeks, he has traded places with Giuliani's numbers (Rudy, once at 46, is now at 9).

The South Carolina loss has shut down bulls on Huckabee almost completely. The Michigan win has greatly revived the Romney figures.

THE STRATEGIES

My guess - and it is speculative - is that McCain will win in Florida. Accordingly, the McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama combos look really, really attractive.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 45 7.8 2% GIULIANI 4.2 -3 14% OBAMA 15.5 -9.1 5% HUCKABEE 0.8 -3.6 n.m. ROMNEY 11.4 7.9 4% McCAIN 18 -0.1 6% PAUL 1 0.4 n.m.	2008 Week 4: Thompson withdraws; Kucinich withdraws. Obama-Clinton do slugfest in S. Carolina; GOP debate in Florida.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask MCCAIN 49.6 2.5 0% ROMNEY 34.5 25.9 7% GIULIANI 9.2 -11.4 17% HUCKABEE 3 -11.1 3% PAUL 1.7 -0.5 n.m. RICE 0.4 0 n.m. GINGRICH 0.4 0 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 66.7 10.7 1% OBAMA 31.7 -8.4 3% GORE 0.9 0 n.m. EDWARDS 0.7 -0.8 n.m. RICHRDSN 0.1 0 n.m. BIDEN 0 0 n.m. DODD 0 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 88 3 7% GOP 5.1 -0.1 92%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 61.1 -1.4 3% GOP 35.2 -0.3 3% OTH 2.7 0.7 4%
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 20.1 8.6 18% BAYH 11 -2.6 22% FIELD 20 -1 3% RICHARDSON 10.6 0.4 12% GORE 12.4 1 1% CLARK 7.6 -2.5 63% WEBB 1.7 -1.3 n.m.	DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask FIELD 30.3 0.2 19% HUCKABEE 22.7 2.2 7% PAWLENTY 9.5 3 53% THOMPSON(F) 10.9 6.2 16% GIULIANI 6 3.5 15% GINGRICH 1.8 -4.5 n.m. BUSH(J) 0.2 -1.8 n.m.
President Parley Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON-McCAIN 37.3 13.3 4% OBAMA-McCAIN 14.2 -4.8 5% CLINTON-GIULIAN 4 -8.5 50% OBAMA-GIULIANI 3.1 -3.9 29% CLINTON-HUCK 0.2 -6.8 n.m. OBAMA-HUCKABEE 0.3 -5.2 n.m. CLINTON-ROMNEY 21 16 33% OBAMA-ROMNEY 9 4.9 56%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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Can Free Markets "Fix" The Bond Insurnace Crisis?

Some people are prone to theorize that we could all get along without the Federal Reserve System or even using private currency.

Tsk. Tsk.

Check out the free markets ... er, not at work.

In many circumstances, the rational response is to pull up your drawbridges. That's not so good, if the economy is supposed to maximize general welfare, is it?

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Housing Market Downdraft - On Track

Construction has special importance as an economic variable, for a number of reasons. It tends to be one of the more cyclical components of ...er, 'free markets'.

The current read is that new housing starts came in at 1006 thousand (about a million homes).

On my little housing model (that is needed if you are going to forecast GDP for 2008), this is consistent with the fall in housing that most have already forecast.

I was up at 1090 for the month. My figures guess at a bottom in May-Jul of this year.

I'd say that the pace of 'correction' appears a bit faster than I was projecting, except that permits, a more forward looking indicator, came in at 1068.

(caveat: most figures, including these, get revised. These "estimates", nevertheless, have a reality all their own, for investors and prognosticators. This series isn't known for exceptionally sharp revisions, however, as best I recall.)

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Just the Numbers: Week 2

THE NUMBERS

Just a quick peek (no time for more).

McCain is the biggest winner, still, on a percentage basis.

THE STRATEGIES

One pundit put it best. McCain is "The Survivor" candidate - he represents everyone's second choice. Which means he could win it.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 37.2 5.7 1% GIULIANI 7.2 -2.9 6% OBAMA 24.6 -0.5 2% HUCKABEE 4.4 -1.2 5% ROMNEY 3.5 -2.8 3% McCAIN 18.1 4.8 7% PAUL 0.6 -2.5 n.m.	2008 Week 2: IA Primary goes for Huckabee & Obama; NH goes for McCain & Clinton.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask MCCAIN 47.1 15.6 1% GIULIANI 20.6 -5.8 1% HUCKABEE 14.1 -2 6% ROMNEY 8.6 -5.5 9% PAUL 2.2 -2.6 9% THOMPSON(F) 3.5 0.8 6% GINGRICH 0.4 0 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 56 5 2% OBAMA 40.1 -3 2% GORE 0.9 -0.6 n.m. EDWARDS 1.5 -0.9 n.m. RICHRDSN 0.1 -0.2 n.m. BIDEN 0 -0.1 n.m. DODD 0 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 85 -0.1 11% GOP 5.2 0 90%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 62.5 1.8 0% GOP 35.5 -1.5 5% OTH 2 -0.1 5%
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 11.5 6.9 8% BAYH 13.6 -3.2 8% FIELD 21 7.4 13% RICHARDSON 10.2 -3.8 34% GORE 11.4 3.6 22% CLARK 10.1 -2.1 12% WEBB 3 0 97%	DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask FIELD 30.1 0.1 46% HUCKABEE 20.5 10.5 7% PAWLENTY 6.5 -0.6 52% THOMPSON(F) 4.7 2.2 304% GIULIANI 2.5 -3 172% GINGRICH 6.3 0 6% BUSH(J) 2 -1 170%
President Parley Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON-McCAIN 24 8.3 21% OBAMA-McCAIN 19 5.9 18% CLINTON-GIULIAN 12.5 -2 26% OBAMA-GIULIANI 7 -2.1 57% CLINTON-HUCK 7 -0.5 26% OBAMA-HUCKABEE 5.5 -2.5 44% CLINTON-ROMNEY 5 1.9 398% OBAMA-ROMNEY 4.1 1 178%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/Candidate	Pr (%)	Chg Wk.	bid-ask
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
OBAMA	75.8	13.7	0%
CLINTON	22.5	12.5	11%
EDWARDS	1.1	-0.9	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	50.5	20.5	7%
FIELD	42	2	7%
THOMPSON(F)	5	-0.1	80%
ROMNEY	1.6	-6.4	n.m.
GIULIANI	0.1	-1	n.m.
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	69	39	8%
OBAMA	25.5	7.4	37%
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	51	30.9	n.m.
GIULIANI	27	-19.3	n.m.
FIELD	15	0	n.m.
ROMNEY	1.5	-5.3	51%
THOMPSON(F)	1.1	-1	n.m.
New Jersey Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	60	39	22%
OBAMA	30	7.4	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	11%
Republican
GIULIANI	55	-19.3	100%
MCCAIN	17.5	30.9	n.m.
ROMNEY	5.1	-5.3	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.2	-1	n.m.
FIELD	0.1	0	1%
Nevada Caucus
Democratic
OBAMA	43	26.4	n.m.
CLINTON	33.7	8.6	0%
EDWARDS	0.1	-0.4	9%
FIELD	0	0	61%
Republican
MCCAIN	37	22	n.m.
ROMNEY	26	5	n.m.
GIULIANI	10	-15	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	1	-1	n.m.
Pennsylvania Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	50	30	n.m.
OBAMA	40	30	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	40	30.9	n.m.
GIULIANI	35	-25	n.m.
FIELD	10	10	n.m.
ROMNEY	5	0	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.3	-0.7	n.m.
California Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	45	25	n.m.
OBAMA	45	31	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	45	37	n.m.
GIULIANI	31	-19	n.m.
FIELD	10	10	n.m.
ROMNEY	5	-5.2	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.5	0	n.m.
Michigan Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	93.5	73.4	n.m.
FIELD	3.2	2.8	n.m.
OBAMA	0.8	-9.2	n.m.
EDWARDS	0	-2	n.m.
Republican
MCCAIN	67.5	32.4	n.m.
ROMNEY	23	11.9	n.m.
FIELD	5.6	5.6	n.m.
GIULIANI	0.1	-0.9	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0	-0.8	n.m.

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Mobility of Capital or Mobility of People

Dr. Mankiw always has little posers that I suppose he thinks make his points, as do we all.

Here is one.

1. A firm decides to build a $100 million plant in China to make toys there, for import to the USA.
2. Another firm decides to build a $100 million plant in Detroit and bring the Chinese workers to the USA, instead.

The GOP funsters appear to love the first, scaled to almost any degree and irrespective of the communist character of the Chinese government; but they also appear to hate the second, with conservative think-tanks often putting out papers that "demonstrate" that importing workers lowers real wages, a conclusion that they use to bolster what appears to the casual observer to be natural, anti-immigrant sentiments.

Perhaps Paul Krugman's article will have some insights to this political conundrum on the Right, too.

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Just the Numbers: Week 1

THE NUMBERS

Post Iowa, McCain, not Obama, is the biggest mover. Clinton is the biggest loser.

THE STRATEGIES

There was some money to be made int he VP contracts that I missed.

McCain may pick up a lot of independents in N.H., where they relate to his ruggedly independent persona. That may make it a harder state than Iowa for Obama. However, he is not projected to win the primary in the Granite State.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 31.5 -12.5 6% GIULIANI 10.1 -1.8 5% OBAMA 25.1 11.5 7% HUCKABEE 5.6 1.3 4% ROMNEY 6.3 -1.7 10% McCAIN 13.3 4.7 12% PAUL 3.1 -0.1 3%	2008 Week 1: Huckabee gets a miracle; Obama has answered prayers; McCain gets a reprieve. Everyone else still on the ropes, except dropouts Biden, Dodd, and Gravel.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask MCCAIN 31.5 13.4 1% GIULIANI 26.4 -3.9 13% ROMNEY 14.1 -8.3 10% HUCKABEE 16.1 1.6 1% PAUL 4.8 -1.6 17% THOMPSON(F) 2.7 -0.4 22% RICE 0.3 -0.3 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 51 -16 5% OBAMA 43.1 19.7 3% GORE 1.5 -0.6 n.m. EDWARDS 2.4 -2.8 4% RICHRDSN 0.3 0.1 n.m. BIDEN 0.1 0 n.m. DODD 0 -0.1 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 85.1 1.8 5% GOP 5.2 -4.8 90%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 60.7 -0.5 2% GOP 37 0 1% OTH 2.1 0.1 24%
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 4.6 -2.2 72% BAYH 16.8 -0.2 5% FIELD 13.6 0 2% RICHARDSON 14 2.2 6% GORE 7.8 -1.4 26% CLARK 12.2 0 9% WEBB 3 -1.2 80%	DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask FIELD 30 6.7 33% HUCKABEE 10 -11.1 99% PAWLENTY 7.1 -0.1 38% THOMPSON(F) 2.5 -0.1 164% GIULIANI 5.5 1.6 24% GINGRICH 6.3 0 2% BUSH(J) 3 0.5 87%
President Parley Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON-GIULIAN 14.5 -8.5 17% CLINTON-ROMNEY 3.1 -12.4 203% OBAMA-GIULIANI 9.1 1.1 109% CLINTON-HUCK 7.5 -1.5 23% OBAMA-HUCKABEE 8 2.4 25% OBAMA-ROMNEY 3.1 -4.9 219% CLINTON-McCAIN 15.7 4.4 8% OBAMA-McCAIN 13.1 8.1 91%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/Candidate	Pr (%)	Chg Wk.	bid-ask
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	33.1	-21.9	32%
OBAMA	65	30	6%
EDWARDS	0.2	-1.4	n.m.
FIELD	0	-0.1	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	23	-24	6%
GIULIANI	0.3	-0.9	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.2	-0.1	n.m.
FIELD	3.5	-3	166%
HUCKABEE	1.2	-2.6	n.m.
MCCAIN	70	43.7	3%
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	10	-30.1	337%
OBAMA	62.1	12.1	37%
EDWARDS	2	0.7	95%
FIELD	0	-0.1	181%
Republican
ROMNEY	8	-2	49%
GIULIANI	1.1	-4.2	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	5.1	-2	n.m.
FIELD	40	-12	67%
MCCAIN	30	19.9	n.m.
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	30	-40.1	n.m.
OBAMA	18.1	3	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	-1.9	n.m.
FIELD	0	-0.1	188%
Republican
ROMNEY	6.8	-0.2	148%
GIULIANI	46.3	0.2	449%
THOMPSON(F)	2.1	0.1	n.m.
FIELD	15	-6	n.m.
MCCAIN	20.1	10	n.m.
New Jersey Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	20	20	n.m.
OBAMA	10	0	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	-0.9	39%
FIELD	0	-0.1	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	5.1	0	463%
GIULIANI	65.1	14.9	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	1.1	0.1	n.m.
MCCAIN	10	2	649%
Nevada Caucus
Democratic
CLINTON	25.1	-9.9	n.m.
OBAMA	16.6	11.5	260%
EDWARDS	0.5	-0.5	n.m.
FIELD	0	-0.1	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	21	4.8	n.m.
GIULIANI	25	-0.6	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	2	-4.1	n.m.
MCCAIN	15	9.4	n.m.
Pennsylvania Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	20	-30	n.m.
OBAMA	10	0	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	-0.9	n.m.
FIELD	0	-0.1	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	5	-0.1	n.m.
GIULIANI	60	-5.2	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	1	-4	n.m.
FIELD	6	-4.5	n.m.
MCCAIN	9.1	-0.9	n.m.
California Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	20	-30	n.m.
OBAMA	14	4	n.m.
EDWARDS	0.1	-0.9	n.m.
FIELD	0	-0.1	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	10.2	0.1	n.m.
GIULIANI	50	-4.9	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.5	-4.5	n.m.
MCCAIN	8	-2.1	n.m.
Michigan Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	20.1	-19.9	n.m.
OBAMA	10	0	n.m.
EDWARDS	2	2	n.m.
FIELD	0.4	0.4	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	11.1	-29	n.m.
GIULIANI	1	-4.1	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	0.8	0.1	n.m.
MCCAIN	35.1	14.5	n.m.

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