THE NUMBERS
Clinton falls a bit, but her numbers remain solid.
Huckabee has moved up, both in Iowa and nationally, while Ron Paul has leveled off. McCain continues to show no movement.
As the races start to look increasingly binary, these numbers start to get ... boring.
The Senate races haven't shown much movement. Collins (ME) dipped slightly, to lowest point yet, but maybe not 'statistically significant'. Coleman continues to be well bid in Minnesota. Sununu is in a dead heat, so far. For all the talk, McConnell's numbers don't change.
Giuliani is on the move in the FL and NV primaries.
Romney contracts tick up noticeably in South Carolina and New Hampsire. He is now even with Thompson in those states, so the Thompson candidacy, which this blog mused might well hobble Romney in the South, appears to not be having that impact (or any impact).
THE STRATEGIES
One could make some money (circa 15%) betting against Edwards to win in Iowa.
If you think that Obama will bring it home, there is a huge payoff in the parleys for betting both Obama-Giuliani and Obama-Romney (85%). Buying the Obama-for-President contract still pays just over 90% ... !
Everyone assumes that Obama can win the General, if chosen, but that chicken seems counted too soon (to me).
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 49.1 | 2.5 | 1% | | GIULIANI | 17.1 | 1.1 | 3% | | ROMNEY | 9.8 | -0.4 | 2% | | GORE | 3.1 | -2.2 | 10% | | OBAMA | 8 | 1.1 | 11% | | THOMPSON(F) | 1.4 | -0.6 | n.m. | | PAUL | 3.5 | 0 | 3% |
| 2007 Week 47: Dems debate on CNN with few impressed by the questions asked. Clinton campaign under considerable pressure to show she has experience and can handle the heat. McClellan dishes up the Wilson-Plame WH cover-up.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 45.5 | 3.1 | 0% | | ROMNEY | 27.1 | -0.4 | 2% | | HUCKABEE | 8.2 | 2.8 | 4% | | MCCAIN | 7 | -0.2 | 1% | | PAUL | 6 | -1.7 | 2% | | THOMPSON(F) | 4.9 | -0.9 | 12% | | RICE | 1.4 | 1 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 71.2 | 0.1 | 0% | | OBAMA | 17.1 | 3.2 | 4% | | GORE | 4.6 | -0.8 | 2% | | EDWARDS | 5.4 | 0.2 | 2% | | RICHRDSN | 0.3 | -0.4 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.3 | 0.1 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | -0.1 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 82.1 | 2.1 | 4% | | GOP | 15 | 5 | 33% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 63.6 | 1.6 | 1% | | GOP | 34.7 | -1.3 | 4% | | OTH | 1.6 | -0.2 | n.m. |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 15.1 | -6.4 | 18% | | BAYH | 18 | 2 | 0% | | FIELD | 12 | 0.3 | 28% | | RICHARDSON | 15.7 | 3.4 | 5% | | GORE | 6.4 | -1.1 | 98% | | CLARK | 10 | 0 | 27% | | WEBB | 3.6 | -0.4 | 103% |
| | DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| FIELD | 23 | -2 | 42% | | HUCKABEE | 27.2 | 0.1 | 6% | | PAWLENTY | 5.3 | -0.2 | 170% | | THOMPSON(F) | 4 | 1.6 | 143% | | GIULIANI | 5.6 | 0 | 38% | | GINGRICH | 5.1 | 0.1 | 61% | | BUSH(J) | 5.4 | 0.1 | 52% |
|
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 39 | 1 | 3% | | CLINTON-ROMNEY | 20.1 | 0.1 | 23% | | OBAMA-GIULIANI | 4.1 | 0.1 | 95% | | CLINTON-McCAIN | 5.1 | 0 | 57% | | GORE-GIULIANI | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. | | OBAMA-THOMP | 1 | -1 | n.m. | | OBAMA-ROMNEY | 3 | 1.4 | 117% | | EDWARDS-GIULIAN | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 50.1 | -11.8 | 20% |
| OBAMA | 29 | 11 | 176% |
| EDWARDS | 15 | 0 | 18% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0 | -0.2 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 45.5 | -14.5 | 15% |
| GIULIANI | 3.3 | 0.3 | 91% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1.4 | -0.6 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 7.2 | 6 | 38% |
| MCCAIN | 0.3 | -1.3 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 79.9 | -1.1 | 3% |
| OBAMA | 19 | 8.8 | 5% |
| EDWARDS | 1.2 | -0.8 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.1 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1.2 | -0.2 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 69.5 | 14.5 | 5% |
| GIULIANI | 12 | -3 | 25% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1.5 | 0.5 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 9 | -3.6 | 11% |
| MCCAIN | 7 | -1.5 | 36% |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 79.8 | 9.8 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 15 | -5 | 67% |
| EDWARDS | 3 | 0.9 | 163% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | -0.9 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 25 | 10 | 44% |
| GIULIANI | 20 | -10 | 99% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 25 | -5 | 19% |
| FIELD | 12.6 | 1.1 | 56% |
| MCCAIN | 4.5 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 81 | 6 | 5% |
| OBAMA | 12.5 | 0 | 20% |
| EDWARDS | 2.1 | 0 | 67% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1.1 | -3.9 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 6 | 2.9 | 100% |
| GIULIANI | 79.9 | 9.9 | 5% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 6 | -9 | 145% |
| FIELD | 6 | 1 | 145% |
| MCCAIN | 2.5 | 0.5 | 288% |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 79.9 | 3.9 | 6% |
| OBAMA | 8 | 1.9 | 88% |
| EDWARDS | 5.1 | 0 | 194% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0.1 | -4.9 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 12.1 | -8.9 | 187% |
| GIULIANI | 59 | 14 | 2% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | -10 | 194% |
| MCCAIN | 2 | 0.8 | 145% |
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