Tuesday, November 13, 2007

All eyes on the dollar

The short, sharp reversal in the fate of the U.S. Dollar the day before yesterday was an indication that the U.S. may not have pulled off the biggest, stealth competitive "devaluation" in recent memory.

Once it becomes clear whether the US is headed for a significant slowdown or recession, expect the trends to reverse [meaning, that reversal may be the shape of things to come]. Until then, probably more of the same, although waking up everyday to the USD down another 0.25% is probably not likely to continue without a period of consolidation.

Meanwhile, it appears, this morning, that the death of the US consumer has been much exaggerated.

These are good trading markets - it's hard to see a trendline emerge decisively in any short order. However, these good numbers coupled with 'manageable' inflation figures might be the excuse for a "Santa Claus" rally that the markets so desperately want.

The Euro block, with rates on hold:


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