THE NUMBERS
The race tightened among the top four contenders.
Ron Paul has a fantastic fund-raising set, and moves up in the numbers, to his highest level yet.
Thompson continues to skid.
In an apparent mimic of "The West Wing", Huckabee improves his lead as the VP who can 'talk the language' of the Conservative Right.
Giuliani doing amazingly well in Florida.
THE STRATEGIES
Nothing new this week.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 46.6 | -0.1 | 1% | | GIULIANI | 16 | -0.5 | 5% | | ROMNEY | 10.2 | 2.9 | 6% | | GORE | 5.3 | -1.1 | 6% | | OBAMA | 6.9 | 0.8 | 14% | | THOMPSON(F) | 2 | -1.8 | 50% | | PAUL | 3.5 | 0 | 3% |
| 2007 Week 45: Contentiousness heats up as Dem Candidates use debate forum to bust out from behind Hilliary. Kucinich slammed with UFO question. Huckabee becomes media darling, sort of. AG Mukasey is in the news on torture and sworn in. Obama revels tax plan for the middle class. Congressman Rangle's tax plan gets play from GOP trying to re-brand itself. Giuliani wins endorsement of Pat Robertson, shoring up support against Romney, who has Bob Jones III, president of the fundamentalist Bob Jones University, Robert R. Taylor, dean of the university’s college of arts and sciences, Dr. John Willke, who helped found the National Right to Life Committee.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 42.4 | 0.6 | 2% | | ROMNEY | 27.5 | 1.6 | 8% | | PAUL | 7.7 | 0.9 | 3% | | MCCAIN | 7.2 | 0.4 | 3% | | HUCKABEE | 5.4 | -0.6 | 17% | | THOMPSON(F) | 5.8 | -5.2 | 3% | | RICE | 0.4 | -0.7 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 71.1 | 2 | 0% | | OBAMA | 13.9 | 1.5 | 1% | | GORE | 5.4 | -2 | 9% | | EDWARDS | 5.2 | 0 | 4% | | RICHRDSN | 0.7 | 0 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.2 | -0.1 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 80 | -7 | 13% | | GOP | 10 | 3.4 | 75% |
| |
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 21.5 | -0.1 | 2% | | BAYH | 16 | 0.9 | 6% | | FIELD | 11.7 | -0.3 | 34% | | RICHARDSON | 12.3 | 1.1 | 33% | | GORE | 7.5 | -0.7 | 37% | | CLARK | 10 | 2.7 | 33% | | WEBB | 4 | -1 | 83% |
| | DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| FIELD | 25 | -5.1 | 48% | | HUCKABEE | 27.1 | 7 | 28% | | PAWLENTY | 5.5 | 0.3 | 165% | | THOMPSON(F) | 2.4 | 0.3 | 313% | | GIULIANI | 5.6 | -2.4 | 66% | | GINGRICH | 5 | 3.5 | 80% | | BUSH(J) | 5.3 | 0.3 | 57% |
|
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 38 | 1 | 13% | | CLINTON-ROMNEY | 20 | 1.7 | 10% | | OBAMA-GIULIANI | 4 | -2.1 | 125% | | CLINTON-McCAIN | 5.1 | 0.1 | 16% | | GORE-GIULIANI | 0.1 | -2.5 | n.m. | | OBAMA-THOMP | 2 | 0 | 200% | | OBAMA-ROMNEY | 1.6 | 0.1 | n.m. | | EDWARDS-GIULIAN | 0 | -1 | n.m. |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 61.9 | -4.2 | 4% |
| OBAMA | 18 | -2 | 31% |
| EDWARDS | 15 | 10 | 67% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0.2 | -0.8 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 60 | -7 | 15% |
| GIULIANI | 3 | 1.5 | 150% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 2 | -3.1 | 400% |
| FIELD | 1.2 | -1.8 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 1.6 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 81 | -1 | 10% |
| OBAMA | 10.2 | 0.2 | 96% |
| EDWARDS | 2 | 1 | 150% |
| FIELD | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1.4 | -4.6 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 55 | 4.7 | 18% |
| GIULIANI | 15 | -18 | 67% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 1 | 0.8 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 12.6 | 7.1 | 27% |
| MCCAIN | 8.5 | 1 | 4% |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70 | -1 | 14% |
| OBAMA | 20 | 0 | 25% |
| EDWARDS | 2.1 | 1.6 | 276% |
| FIELD | 1 | 0.9 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0.1 | -1.9 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 15 | 4.7 | 67% |
| GIULIANI | 30 | -5.3 | 33% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 30 | -10 | 33% |
| FIELD | 11.5 | 6.9 | 30% |
| MCCAIN | 4 | 2 | 123% |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 75 | -5 | 13% |
| OBAMA | 12.5 | 2.5 | 20% |
| EDWARDS | 2.1 | 1.9 | 138% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| GORE | 5 | 4.9 | 200% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 3.1 | 0.6 | 155% |
| GIULIANI | 70 | 3 | 14% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 15 | -5.1 | 67% |
| FIELD | 5 | 1.1 | 200% |
| MCCAIN | 2 | 1 | 150% |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 76 | 0 | 5% |
| OBAMA | 6.1 | 1.1 | 146% |
| EDWARDS | 5.1 | 0.1 | 194% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 21 | 0.7 | 43% |
| GIULIANI | 45 | -0.3 | 22% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 15 | -5 | 63% |
| MCCAIN | 1.2 | 0.2 | n.m. |
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