THE NUMBERS
Very little changed. Ron Paul now has more strength than McCain, Gingrich, Huckabee.
Senate race figures, normally very quiescent, showed a pop for the Dems. (Not sure if this is related to Senator Warner's announced retirement or not).
THE STRATEGIES
The parley payoff for any combo of Clinton, Giuliani, Obama, or Romney as the nominees fell to 46%, (36% on the formidable "ask" side of the market).
As "inevitable" as Clinton looks, there is still a sizable 56% payoff for betting on her to win the Presidency (or a 50% annualized return to 11/4/08).
If you aren't a straight up better, you can bet on 'conventional wisdom', as follows: take the odds-on Clinton-Giuliani parley for the nominee match-up, but "hedge" by buying up contracts for Romney, Obama, Thompson to win the Presidency (rather than the nomination). That will yield a 46% return, unless Clinton-Giuliani isn't the matchup and someone other than Romney, Obama, or Thompson takes the oath of Office (e.g., it turns out to be a Clinton-Romney or Obama-Giuliani matchup and/or Clinton or Giuliani takes the oath).
Throwing in a Giuliani contract for President, addition protection, will yield 29%. A Clinton-Romney parley pairs it further to just 8% - you don't get paid for minimal risk.
Big payoffs await those who are down on Clinton's electability in the general election. If you believe that Clinton will win the nomination but her party's contract would go to zero in the general election, that would be worth a whopping 133%, if both events occurred.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 43.8 | 0.7 | 0% | | GIULIANI | 16.2 | -0.5 | 4% | | THOMPSON(F) | 8.7 | -0.4 | 6% | | ROMNEY | 8.1 | -0.7 | 9% | | OBAMA | 7.7 | -0.6 | 3% | | GORE | 6 | 1.5 | 2% | | EDWARDS | 2.8 | -0.9 | 11% |
| 2007 Week 39: More "debating"; GOP hold "Values Voter Debates", but controversially declines Univision and some candidates also Morgan State University; venues; much hay over moveon.org ad and Ahmadi-Nejad visit. 
| | GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 35.3 | 0.3 | 0% | | THOMPSON(F) | 24.4 | -0.4 | 2% | | ROMNEY | 22.5 | -0.7 | 0% | | PAUL | 5.6 | 1.4 | 2% | | MCCAIN | 4.6 | -0.6 | 13% | | GINGRICH | 5 | 1.6 | 2% | | HUCKABEE | 2.1 | -1.3 | 48% |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 67 | -0.9 | 0% | | OBAMA | 16.1 | -0.7 | 1% | | GORE | 8.4 | 1.2 | 2% | | EDWARDS | 6.6 | -1.1 | 3% | | RICHRDSN | 0.6 | 0.1 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.4 | 0 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| | Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 85 | 4.5 | 9% | | GOP | 5 | -6 | 196% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 59.4 | 0.5 | 2% | | GOP | 38.7 | -1.1 | 1% | | OTH | 1.1 | -0.2 | n.m. |
| | DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 26.1 | 0.6 | 7% | | RICHARDSON | 15.2 | -3.3 | 6% | | BAYH | 14.1 | 6 | 4% | | FIELD | 11.2 | 0 | 19% | | GORE | 7.4 | 0.4 | 30% | | CLARK | 6.1 | -3.9 | 44% | | STRICKLAND | 5.6 | 0 | 66% |
|
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus | | Democratic | | CLINTON | 60 | 15 | 7% | | OBAMA | 16.7 | 0 | 15% | | EDWARDS | 15 | -15 | 23% | | FIELD | 0 | -0.1 | n.m. | | GORE | 5.1 | 5 | 80% | | Republican | | ROMNEY | 60 | 15 | 16% | | GIULIANI | 10 | 0 | 87% | | THOMPSON(F) | 10 | 0 | 60% | | FIELD | 6 | 0 | 62% | | MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. | | New Hampshire Primary | | Democratic | | CLINTON | 75 | 10 | 13% | | OBAMA | 10 | -5 | 96% | | EDWARDS | 0.1 | -4.9 | n.m. | | FIELD | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. | | GORE | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3% | | Republican | | ROMNEY | 43 | -2 | 37% | | GIULIANI | 28 | 8 | 21% | | THOMPSON(F) | 10 | 0 | 47% | | FIELD | 7.2 | 1.2 | 104% | | MCCAIN | 5 | 4 | 40% | | South Carolina Primary | | Democratic | | CLINTON | 60 | 10 | 17% | | OBAMA | 25 | 0 | 20% | | EDWARDS | 5 | -5 | 200% | | FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. | | GORE | 5.1 | 3.6 | 96% | | Republican | | ROMNEY | 9 | 4 | 67% | | GIULIANI | 25 | -5 | 40% | | THOMPSON(F) | 48 | 37 | 13% | | FIELD | 1 | 1 | n.m. | | MCCAIN | 5 | 1 | 200% | | Florida Primary | | Democratic | | CLINTON | 80 | 0 | 12% | | OBAMA | 10.1 | 0 | 46% | | EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | n.m. | | FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. | | GORE | 5.1 | 5.1 | 188% | | Republican | | ROMNEY | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. | | GIULIANI | 55 | 5 | 18% | | THOMPSON(F) | 35 | 30 | 29% | | FIELD | 0.1 | -4.9 | n.m. | | MCCAIN | 0.8 | 0 | n.m. | | Nevada Primary | | Democratic | | CLINTON | 70 | 0 | 14% | | OBAMA | 5 | 5 | 200% | | EDWARDS | 5 | 5 | 200% | | FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. | | GORE | 5 | 4.9 | 200% | | Republican | | ROMNEY | 12 | -3 | 67% | | GIULIANI | 35 | 5 | 29% | | THOMPSON(F) | 40 | 40 | 25% | | MCCAIN | 0.2 | 0.2 | n.m. |
|
[+/-] Show Full Post...
[+/-] Hide Full Post...
No comments:
Post a Comment