THE NUMBERS
Giuliani sags a bit across the board. Thompson appears to get a bounce from his splash debut. Clinton, ever so slightly stronger, pushes Obama down.
Hagel's contract goes to zero bid. Tancredo goes to zero bid. Ron Paul maintains edge over Gingrich. Richardson at new contract low, below 1% for the first time.
THE STRATEGIES
Nothing new. Going to have a look at the "drop out" contacts.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 43.1 | 1.9 | 1% | | GIULIANI | 16.7 | -2.8 | 7% | | THOMPSON(F) | 9.1 | 0.5 | 1% | | ROMNEY | 8.8 | 0.2 | 3% | | OBAMA | 8.3 | -1.7 | 8% | | GORE | 4.5 | 0.7 | 11% | | EDWARDS | 3.7 | 0.6 | 3% |
| 2007 Week 37: Busy. GOP hopefuls debate in N.H. and high results for Ron Paul upset some; McCain calls Concord High kid "you little jerk"; Obama hits on Clinton's Iraq vote; Thompson enters race officially on Tonight Show, spurning GOP N.H. debate. All forcus on DC as Petraeus/Crocker report "upward slope" in Iraq progress.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 35 | -3.7 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 24.3 | 2.3 | 2% | | ROMNEY | 23.2 | -0.3 | 3% | | MCCAIN | 5.2 | 0.2 | 2% | | PAUL | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2% | | GINGRICH | 3.4 | 0.1 | 3% | | HUCKABEE | 3.4 | -0.1 | 6% |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 67.9 | 0 | 0% | | OBAMA | 16.8 | -0.1 | 1% | | EDWARDS | 7.7 | 0.6 | 1% | | GORE | 7.2 | 0.1 | 1% | | RICHRDSN | 0.5 | -0.6 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.4 | 0 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 80.5 | 0 | 10% | | GOP | 11 | -4 | 64% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 58.9 | 0.8 | 0% | | GOP | 39.8 | 0 | 3% | | OTH | 1.3 | -0.7 | n.m. |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 25.5 | 0.5 | 41% | | RICHARDSON | 18.5 | 0.5 | 35% | | CLARK | 10 | 0 | 30% | | VILSACK | 10 | 10 | 50% | | BAYH | 8.1 | 1.6 | 85% | | EDWARDS | 7 | 3 | 34% | | GORE | 7 | 2.6 | 29% |
|
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 25 | -3 | 24% |
| CLINTON-ROMNEY | 16 | 0 | 25% |
| CLINTON-THOMP | 14 | 0 | 32% |
| OBAMA-GIULIANI | 7 | 0.9 | 57% |
| OBAMA-THOMP | 4 | 0 | 100% |
| OBAMA-ROMNEY | 3 | 0 | 117% |
| CLINTON-McCAIN | 3 | 0 | 167% |
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 45 | 0 | 22% |
| OBAMA | 16.7 | 6.7 | 19% |
| EDWARDS | 30 | 5 | 23% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | -0.2 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 45 | 0 | 100% |
| GIULIANI | 10 | 0 | 90% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 10 | -15 | 250% |
| FIELD | 6 | 0 | 67% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 65 | 0 | 15% |
| OBAMA | 15 | 0 | 33% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 2 | 0.6 | 400% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 45 | 0 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 20 | 0 | 50% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 10 | -5 | 150% |
| FIELD | 6 | 0 | 150% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 50 | 0 | 20% |
| OBAMA | 25 | 0 | 40% |
| EDWARDS | 10 | 0 | 100% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1.5 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| GIULIANI | 30 | 0 | 33% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 11 | -39 | 445% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 4 | 3.9 | 150% |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 80 | 0 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 10.1 | 0 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 0.1 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 50 | 0 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 5 | -25 | 0% |
| FIELD | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0.8 | 0 | 0% |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70 | 0 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 0 | -15 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0.1 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 30 | 0 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0 | -40 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0 | 0 | 0% |
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