Sunday, September 30, 2007

Electoral College in Dead Heat

NEW FEATURE

The 'prediction markets' are showing the electoral college in a dead heat. 268 of 270 needed are leaning toward Democrats.

Volume in the New Mexico contracts is running higher than other states.

StateDEMREPChng Wk. Dem/RepBid-Ask. Dem/RepElec. Vote
D.C.97.52.50/0n.m.3
Massachusetts93.56.50/06%/n.m.12
New York9280/0n.m./50%31
Rhode Island9280/0n.m./38%4
Maryland88.511.50/08%/61%10
Hawaii8750/0n.m./298%4
California85120/0n.m./25%55
Connecticut85150/0n.m.7
Illinois84.815.20/0n.m./35%21
Delaware84160/0n.m.3
Vermont8313.50/0n.m./26%3
New Jersey80.117.50/012%/14%15
Pennsylvania80160/06%/56%21
Michigan79.520.50/0n.m.17
Oregon75200/013%/50%7
Washington7522.50/0n.m.11
Minnesota73.526.50/0n.m./6%10
New Hampshire72.5180/03%/n.m.4
Maine7125.10/05%/31%4
Wisconsin70200/029%/n.m.10
Missouri5440.10/0n.m./75%11
New Mexico5139.50/0n.m.5
Ohio5033.50/020%/109%20
Florida4155.50/022%/14%27
Colorado40.257.70/0n.m.9
Iowa40.1500/0n.m.7
Nevada4040.10/050%/50%5
West Virginia35650/0n.m.5
Arkansas29500/072%/n.m.6
Indiana25.574.50/018%/n.m.11
Virginia25.5710/0n.m.13
Arizona20700/0100%/n.m.10
Tennessee20500/0150%/66%11
Louisiana19.5700/054%/n.m.9
Kansas18600/061%/n.m.6
North Carolina1781.50/0135%/10%15
South Dakota15850/0n.m.3
Mississippi10900/0n.m.6
Alaska10900/0n.m.3
Montana10900/0n.m.3
North Dakota10900/0n.m.3
Kentucky1074.50/0n.m./21%8
Texas10900/0n.m.34
Oklahoma10900/0n.m./5%7
Nebraska8920/038%/n.m.5
Idaho7930/0n.m.4
Utah5.592.30/0n.m.5
Wyoming592.50/0n.m.3
Alabama2.1940/0n.m.9
South Carolina2900/0n.m.8
Georgia2840/0n.m.15

*Change from prior week is "0" as prior week's data has not been collected.

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points but the spread expressed as a percentage of the bid value; values may only be indicative, when % bid-ask is large or volume slight.

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Posted by Amicus at 3:37 PM 0 comments

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Saturday, September 29, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 39

THE NUMBERS

Very little changed. Ron Paul now has more strength than McCain, Gingrich, Huckabee.

Senate race figures, normally very quiescent, showed a pop for the Dems. (Not sure if this is related to Senator Warner's announced retirement or not).

THE STRATEGIES

The parley payoff for any combo of Clinton, Giuliani, Obama, or Romney as the nominees fell to 46%, (36% on the formidable "ask" side of the market).

As "inevitable" as Clinton looks, there is still a sizable 56% payoff for betting on her to win the Presidency (or a 50% annualized return to 11/4/08).

If you aren't a straight up better, you can bet on 'conventional wisdom', as follows: take the odds-on Clinton-Giuliani parley for the nominee match-up, but "hedge" by buying up contracts for Romney, Obama, Thompson to win the Presidency (rather than the nomination). That will yield a 46% return, unless Clinton-Giuliani isn't the matchup and someone other than Romney, Obama, or Thompson takes the oath of Office (e.g., it turns out to be a Clinton-Romney or Obama-Giuliani matchup and/or Clinton or Giuliani takes the oath).

Throwing in a Giuliani contract for President, addition protection, will yield 29%. A Clinton-Romney parley pairs it further to just 8% - you don't get paid for minimal risk.

Big payoffs await those who are down on Clinton's electability in the general election. If you believe that Clinton will win the nomination but her party's contract would go to zero in the general election, that would be worth a whopping 133%, if both events occurred.

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)43.80.70%
GIULIANI16.2-0.54%
THOMPSON(F)8.7-0.46%
ROMNEY8.1-0.79%
OBAMA7.7-0.63%
GORE61.52%
EDWARDS2.8-0.911%
2007 Week 39: More "debating"; GOP hold "Values Voter Debates", but controversially declines Univision and some candidates also Morgan State University; venues; much hay over moveon.org ad and Ahmadi-Nejad visit.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI35.30.30%
THOMPSON(F)24.4-0.42%
ROMNEY22.5-0.70%
PAUL5.61.42%
MCCAIN4.6-0.613%
GINGRICH51.62%
HUCKABEE2.1-1.348%
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON67-0.90%
OBAMA16.1-0.71%
GORE8.41.22%
EDWARDS6.6-1.13%
RICHRDSN0.60.1n.m.
BIDEN0.40n.m.
DODD0.10n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM854.59%
GOP5-6196%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM59.40.52%
GOP38.7-1.11%
OTH1.1-0.2n.m.
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA26.10.67%
RICHARDSON15.2-3.36%
BAYH14.164%
FIELD11.2019%
GORE7.40.430%
CLARK6.1-3.944%
STRICKLAND5.6066%
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/CandidatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
Iowa Caucus
Democratic
CLINTON60157%
OBAMA16.7015%
EDWARDS15-1523%
FIELD0-0.1n.m.
GORE5.1580%
Republican
ROMNEY601516%
GIULIANI10087%
THOMPSON(F)10060%
FIELD6062%
MCCAIN10n.m.
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
CLINTON751013%
OBAMA10-596%
EDWARDS0.1-4.9n.m.
FIELD0.20n.m.
GORE9.77.73%
Republican
ROMNEY43-237%
GIULIANI28821%
THOMPSON(F)10047%
FIELD7.21.2104%
MCCAIN5440%
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
CLINTON601017%
OBAMA25020%
EDWARDS5-5200%
FIELD00n.m.
GORE5.13.696%
Republican
ROMNEY9467%
GIULIANI25-540%
THOMPSON(F)483713%
FIELD11n.m.
MCCAIN51200%
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON80012%
OBAMA10.1046%
EDWARDS00n.m.
FIELD00n.m.
GORE5.15.1188%
Republican
ROMNEY0.10n.m.
GIULIANI55518%
THOMPSON(F)353029%
FIELD0.1-4.9n.m.
MCCAIN0.80n.m.
Nevada Primary
Democratic
CLINTON70014%
OBAMA55200%
EDWARDS55200%
FIELD00n.m.
GORE54.9200%
Republican
ROMNEY12-367%
GIULIANI35529%
THOMPSON(F)404025%
MCCAIN0.20.2n.m.

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Posted by Amicus at 3:31 AM 0 comments

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Monday, September 24, 2007

Consumer Choice

How do you know when consumers have too much choice, if such a thing is possible?

Well, for all the economists out there who think that putting health care dollars into the hands of consumers will improve their price sensitivity and drive the system to better results (i.e. mitigate the unwanted effects of what Arnold Kling calls "insulation"), there is this tidbit:

The Dole-Shalala commission, convened after the failures at Walter Reed, is recommending recovery care coordinators, who will assist people in understanding the full range of benefits and options.

This is what people seem to want. Rather than 'just-in-time insurance', they would like "information care", when they need it, not to invest time and money in advance.

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Posted by Amicus at 1:53 PM 0 comments

Just-in-Time Health Insurance

Some guy selling insurance pretends that you can sell/buy insurance as the train is crashing.

Before one even reads the article, you know the concept is flawed, in general, because insurance has to be a net loser to buyers in order for it to have force / value. Therefore, the concept must be related to something else, like just changing the timing of the payments one would otherwise make under "level pay" assumptions.

Of course, anyone fool enough to want to compound a sudden change in financial circumstances with a sudden decline in well-being is welcome to buy just-in-time insurance.

(btw, does anyone dare to publish the financial strength rating of the firm that would sell such insurance?)

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Posted by Amicus at 9:36 AM 0 comments

Saturday, September 22, 2007

It couldn't be THAT simple, right?

A theoretical assumption linking current growth and long-term interest rate expectations combined with two interest-rate calculations of monetary stance get you to an r-square of nearly 75% in predicting recessions.

Monetary Stance Metric + Yield Curve Spread = Powerful Tool

If you haven't built a "probit" (probability unit) model in more years than you care to admit publicly, like me, then the amazing world-wide web provides a rescue, in the form of some fairly decent guidelines.

Another model, assuming "NAIRU* of the 1990s", answers the eternal question of what the level of policy rates should amount to:

Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 (Core inflation - Unemployment)

*NAIRU is that rate of unemployment below which the inflation rate will begin to accelerate. In the 1990s, it fell, for structural reasons that no one has pinpointed exactly (that I know).

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Posted by Amicus at 8:42 AM 0 comments

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Just the Numbers: Week 37

THE NUMBERS

Giuliani sags a bit across the board. Thompson appears to get a bounce from his splash debut. Clinton, ever so slightly stronger, pushes Obama down.

Hagel's contract goes to zero bid. Tancredo goes to zero bid. Ron Paul maintains edge over Gingrich. Richardson at new contract low, below 1% for the first time.

THE STRATEGIES

Nothing new. Going to have a look at the "drop out" contacts.

Next PresidentPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON(H)43.11.91%
GIULIANI16.7-2.87%
THOMPSON(F)9.10.51%
ROMNEY8.80.23%
OBAMA8.3-1.78%
GORE4.50.711%
EDWARDS3.70.63%
2007 Week 37: Busy. GOP hopefuls debate in N.H. and high results for Ron Paul upset some; McCain calls Concord High kid "you little jerk"; Obama hits on Clinton's Iraq vote; Thompson enters race officially on Tonight Show, spurning GOP N.H. debate. All forcus on DC as Petraeus/Crocker report "upward slope" in Iraq progress.
GOP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
GIULIANI35-3.71%
THOMPSON(F)24.32.32%
ROMNEY23.2-0.33%
MCCAIN5.20.22%
PAUL4.20.12%
GINGRICH3.40.13%
HUCKABEE3.4-0.16%
DEM NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON67.900%
OBAMA16.8-0.11%
EDWARDS7.70.61%
GORE7.20.11%
RICHRDSN0.5-0.6n.m.
BIDEN0.40n.m.
DODD0.10n.m.
SenatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM80.5010%
GOP11-464%
Next ExecutivePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
DEM58.90.80%
GOP39.803%
OTH1.3-0.7n.m.
DEM VP NomineePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
OBAMA25.50.541%
RICHARDSON18.50.535%
CLARK10030%
VILSACK101050%
BAYH8.11.685%
EDWARDS7334%
GORE72.629%
President ParleyPr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
CLINTON-GIULIAN25-324%
CLINTON-ROMNEY16025%
CLINTON-THOMP14032%
OBAMA-GIULIANI70.957%
OBAMA-THOMP40100%
OBAMA-ROMNEY30117%
CLINTON-McCAIN30167%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/CandidatePr (%)Chg Wk.bid-ask
Iowa Caucus
Democratic
CLINTON45022%
OBAMA16.76.719%
EDWARDS30523%
FIELD0.1-0.2n.m.
GORE0.10n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY450100%
GIULIANI10090%
THOMPSON(F)10-15250%
FIELD6067%
MCCAIN10n.m.
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
CLINTON65015%
OBAMA15033%
EDWARDS50200%
FIELD0.20n.m.
GORE20.6400%
Republican
ROMNEY450n.m.
GIULIANI20050%
THOMPSON(F)10-5150%
FIELD60150%
MCCAIN10n.m.
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
CLINTON50020%
OBAMA25040%
EDWARDS100100%
FIELD00n.m.
GORE1.50n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY50200%
GIULIANI30033%
THOMPSON(F)11-39445%
FIELD00n.m.
MCCAIN43.9150%
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON8000%
OBAMA10.100%
EDWARDS000%
FIELD000%
GORE000%
Republican
ROMNEY0.100%
GIULIANI5000%
THOMPSON(F)5-250%
FIELD500%
MCCAIN0.800%
Nevada Primary
Democratic
CLINTON7000%
OBAMA0-150%
EDWARDS000%
FIELD000%
GORE0.100%
Republican
ROMNEY1500%
GIULIANI3000%
THOMPSON(F)0-400%
MCCAIN000%

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Posted by Amicus at 4:22 PM 0 comments

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Friday, September 14, 2007

Bottoms Up!

You know you've made it as a business when you have enough stock to handle a party like this and your clients can expense it ... :-)

A high-rolling businessman woke up with a bar receipt for £105,805 in his wallet after he treated a group of friends to a lavish night out at one of London's most expensive nightclubs [Crystal], it was claimed yesterday.

It total he is said to have bought an astonishing 102 bottles-worth of champagne and 11 bottles-worth of vodka.

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Posted by Amicus at 10:48 AM 0 comments

Sunday, September 2, 2007

Economics Day on BookTV Today

The line-up:

The Wal-Mart Revolution: How Big-Box Stores Benefit Consumers, Workers, and the Economy
Author: Richard Vedder

The Chicago School: How the University of Chicago Assembled the Thinkers Who Revolutionized Economics and Business
Author: Johan Van Overtveldt

Consumed: How Markets Corrupt Children, Infantilize Adults, and Swallow Citizens Whole
Author: Benjamin Barber

Subprime Mortgages: America's Latest Boom and Bust
Author: Edward Gramlich

Mellon: An American Life
Author: David Cannadine

Freedomnomics: Why the Free Market Works and Other Half-Baked Theories Don't
Author: John Lott

The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents
Author: Bruce Caldwell

Richistan: A Journey Through the American Wealth Boom and the Lives of the New Rich
Author: Robert Frank

What Would Jesus Buy?: Fabulous Prayers in the Face of the Shopocalypse
Author: Reverend Billy

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism
Author: Robert Murphy

The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won
Author: Peter Navarro

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Posted by Amicus at 11:57 PM 0 comments

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