THE NUMBERS
Clinton remains strong. In the parleys, the likelihood of a Clinton-Guiliani match-up picked up about 2 points, perhaps not enough to be outside the bid-ask noise, but worth keeping an eye on.
McCain has had a short rebound / bounce. Thompson appears to have "topped out".
THE STRATEGIES
It's hard to find 'inside' strategies remaining. This suggests that naked bets may be all that is possible from here on out.
It's important to decide how a Thompson campaign will affect Romney's chances. If you believe how Thompson is polling ahead of Romney in the Southern primaries and, perhaps, in some of the key states, like Florida and Michigan, then Thompson is a spoiler for a Romney bid, despite Romney's early strength in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If you believe, as I do, that sufficient Thompson delegates go to Guiliani at convention, then the bet is for Giuliani and against Thompson and Romney.
If you are truly risk-seeking, you bet Giuliani straight up, which is worth a 65% payoff by the time it is over. If you aren't sure, then you bet against Thompson, which is worth only 31%.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 30.3 | 3.8 | 2% | | GIULIANI | 20 | 0 | 4% | | OBAMA | 19.5 | -1 | 5% | | THOMPSON(F) | 11 | -3.9 | 35% | | ROMNEY | 7 | -1 | 33% | | BLOOMBERG | 4.4 | 0.2 | 9% | | GORE | 4.3 | 0.1 | 14% |
| 2007 Week 30: The year is now more than half over; rumors about when Fred Thompson will announce; a daunting 531 days left in the Bush-Cheney Presidency.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 35.4 | -0.4 | 2% | | THOMPSON(F) | 31.5 | -1.2 | 1% | | ROMNEY | 18.8 | 1.5 | 4% | | MCCAIN | 6 | 1.2 | 5% | | PAUL | 3.2 | 0.1 | 3% | | GINGRICH | 3.1 | -0.2 | 10% | | HUCKABEE | 0.7 | -0.1 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 50.3 | 2.3 | 1% | | OBAMA | 33.4 | -2.5 | 0% | | EDWARDS | 7 | 0.1 | 1% | | GORE | 5.4 | 1.1 | 2% | | RICHRDSN | 2.9 | 0.1 | 7% | | BIDEN | 1.1 | 0.1 | n.m. | | CLARK | 0.6 | -0.1 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 75.1 | -0.9 | 9% | | GOP | 15 | -0.1 | 67% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 56.4 | -0.2 | 0% | | GOP | 39.5 | 0.4 | 1% | | OTH | 4.2 | -0.2 | 14% |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| RICHARDSON | 27 | 0 | 11% | | OBAMA | 20.2 | 1.7 | 18% | | WARNER | 10 | 0 | 85% | | BAYH | 9.5 | 3.5 | 16% | | CLARK | 7.6 | -0.4 | 71% | | CLINTON(H) | 7 | 2 | 36% | | VILSACK | 6 | 0 | 50% |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| DEM Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 35 | 0 | 29% |
| OBAMA | 20 | 20 | 50% |
| EDWARDS | 23 | 3 | 30% |
| FIELD | 0.3 | 0.2 | n.m. |
| GORE | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 41 | 1 | 22% |
| GIULIANI | 15 | 0 | 67% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 25 | 0 | 40% |
| FIELD | 6 | 0 | 150% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 60 | 5 | 17% |
| OBAMA | 20 | 0 | 50% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0.2 | 0.2 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1 | -4 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 45 | 10 | 22% |
| GIULIANI | 20 | -5 | 50% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 15 | -5 | 67% |
| FIELD | 12 | 6 | 25% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 50 | 25 | 20% |
| OBAMA | 31 | 31 | 29% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| GIULIANI | 25 | 5 | 40% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 55 | -5 | 9% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 75 | 1 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 16 | 0 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 0.1 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 50 | 10 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 40 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0% |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70 | 0 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0.1 | -4.9 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 12 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 20 | 0 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 55 | 0 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0 | 0 | 0% |
note: some changes are very large due to incomplete bid data from the prior week.
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