THE NUMBERS
Thompson's numbers skidded and did not recover after the Ames straw poll in Iowa. Romney and Huckabee both get a bump, but McCain does not - this is important, perhaps, for those thinking that Thompson may drop out. Giuliani continues front runner status.
Clinton appears to have pulled ahead in Iowa and this has pushed her decisively ahead in general, too, even where she had shown weakness against Giuliani in the past.
THE STRATEGIES
Gore has moved up to over 8.5% ahead of Edwards in the Dem nominee tables. Because it is highly improbable that Gore will campaign for the Presidency again, this seems like an opportunity to sell.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 38 | 7.7 | 2% | | GIULIANI | 18.1 | -1.9 | 11% | | OBAMA | 13.9 | -5.6 | 4% | | ROMNEY | 9.2 | 2.2 | 7% | | THOMPSON(F) | 9.1 | -1.9 | 31% | | GORE | 4.8 | 0.5 | 13% | | EDWARDS | 3.8 | -0.3 | 53% |
| 2007 Week 33: Ames staw poll in Iowa moves the numbers away from Thompson and gives Huckabee a bump; Quinnipiac College poll shows Clinton moves ahead in a few swing states, after trailing.  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 36.2 | 0.8 | 2% | | THOMPSON(F) | 22.2 | -9.3 | 3% | | ROMNEY | 23.4 | 4.6 | 0% | | MCCAIN | 6.1 | 0.1 | 7% | | PAUL | 3.8 | 0.6 | 18% | | GINGRICH | 3.3 | 0.2 | 18% | | HUCKABEE | 3 | 2.3 | 27% |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 62.7 | 12.4 | 0% | | OBAMA | 20.1 | -13.3 | 12% | | GORE | 8.5 | 3.1 | 1% | | EDWARDS | 7.4 | 0.4 | 1% | | RICHRDSN | 1.8 | -1.1 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.2 | -0.9 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 75.1 | 0 | 9% | | GOP | 15 | 0 | 67% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 56.6 | 0.2 | 0% | | GOP | 39.6 | 0.1 | 0% | | OTH | 3.7 | -0.5 | 8% |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| RICHARDSON | 30 | 3 | 15% | | OBAMA | 22 | 1.8 | 35% | | WARNER | 10 | 0 | 85% | | BAYH | 9.5 | 0 | 16% | | CLARK | 7.6 | 0 | 71% | | CLINTON(H) | 7 | 0 | 36% | | EDWARDS | 6 | 1 | 58% |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 45 | 10 | 10% |
| OBAMA | 10 | -10 | 100% |
| EDWARDS | 25 | 2 | 40% |
| FIELD | 0.3 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0.1 | -4.9 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 45 | 4 | 22% |
| GIULIANI | 10 | -5 | 100% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 25 | 0 | 40% |
| FIELD | 6 | 0 | 150% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 65 | 5 | 8% |
| OBAMA | 15 | -5 | 67% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1.4 | 0.4 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 45 | 0 | 22% |
| GIULIANI | 20 | 0 | 50% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 15 | 0 | 67% |
| FIELD | 6 | -6 | 150% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 50 | 0 | 20% |
| OBAMA | 25 | -6 | 40% |
| EDWARDS | 10 | 5 | 100% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 1.5 | 1.5 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| GIULIANI | 30 | 5 | 33% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 50 | -5 | 20% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 80 | 5 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 10.1 | -5.9 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | -1 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 0.1 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 50 | 0 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 30 | -10 | 0% |
| FIELD | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0.8 | 0 | 0% |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70 | 0 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0.1 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 15 | 3 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 30 | 10 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 40 | -15 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0 | 0 | 0% |
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