THE NUMBERS
Very little to note in the numbers. I've put up the contract figures for the primaries, although most remain very low volume with wide bid-ask. Romeny has strength in IA and NH, but not in the Southern primaries.
McCain has no rebound in the numbers and isn't trading much higher than Gingrich.
THE STRATEGIES
It appears that the Thompson candidacy keeps Romney a third-choice in some states. Is that a kind of party insurance against being dominated by the Christian right?
Can Thompson make it all the way through super Tuesday? It does appear that he could, now. I continue to want to look for points to bet against.
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 26.5 | 1.1 | 3% | | OBAMA | 20.5 | 0.1 | 2% | | GIULIANI | 20 | 0.9 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 14.9 | -1.6 | 1% | | ROMNEY | 8 | 1 | 5% | | BLOOMBERG | 4.2 | 0 | 12% | | GORE | 4.2 | 0.4 | 10% |
| 2007 Week 30: Thompson campaign runs into snags/departures; CNN-youTube debate for the Dems leads to Obama-Clinton spat during week; Gonzales ... keeps talking; Vet Commision issues report, Congress votes Homeland Security Bill. |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 35.8 | -3.2 | 6% | | THOMPSON(F) | 32.7 | -0.7 | 1% | | ROMNEY | 17.3 | 1.4 | 6% | | MCCAIN | 4.8 | 0.8 | 15% | | PAUL | 3.1 | 0.3 | 3% | | GINGRICH | 3.3 | 0.6 | 3% | | HUCKABEE | 0.8 | -0.4 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 48 | 3.2 | 0% | | OBAMA | 35.9 | -2.3 | 1% | | EDWARDS | 6.9 | 1.5 | 3% | | GORE | 4.3 | -1.6 | 5% | | RICHRDSN | 2.8 | 0.9 | 4% | | BIDEN | 1 | 0.4 | n.m. | | CLARK | 0.7 | 0.1 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 76 | -1 | 9% | | GOP | 15.1 | 0.6 | 66% |
| |
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| RICHARDSON | 27 | 2 | 28% | | OBAMA | 18.5 | 4.9 | 19% | | WARNER | 10 | 0 | 85% | | CLARK | 8 | -3 | 63% | | BAYH | 6 | 0.5 | 58% | | VILSACK | 6 | -0.2 | 50% | | CLINTON(H) | 5 | 0 | 90% |
|
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| DEM Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 35 | 0 | 40% |
| OBAMA | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 20 | 0 | 60% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 5 | 0 | 98% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 40 | 0 | 25% |
| GIULIANI | 15 | 0 | 33% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 25 | 0 | 40% |
| FIELD | 6 | 0 | 150% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 55 | 0 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 20 | 0 | 35% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 5 | 0 | 32% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 35 | 0 | 29% |
| GIULIANI | 25 | 0 | 40% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 20 | 0 | 50% |
| FIELD | 6 | 0 | 150% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 25 | 0 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| GIULIANI | 20 | 0 | 50% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 60 | 0 | 17% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 74 | 0 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 16 | 0 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 0.1 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 40 | 0 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 40 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 70 | 0 | 0% |
| OBAMA | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| EDWARDS | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| GORE | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 12 | 0 | 0% |
| GIULIANI | 20 | 0 | 0% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 55 | 0 | 0% |
| MCCAIN | 0 | 0 | 0% |
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