THE NUMBERS
[note: "Chg Wk" column in tables is really change since the last update, which was more than one week ago. I was "busy" with "Gay Pride Month", o.k.?]
Clinton's edge in the numbers narrows, with "Next President" contract now almost a three-way toss up. Surprisingly, Romney's nomination hopes are down on these figures, although other polls show him doing the same or better.
The Democratic race finally narrows, as Gore's nominee contract finally breaks down to 5% or so and Edwards trades at new contract lows.
Although the bid-asks are so wide that implications are highly speculative, the VP figures are suggesting that John Edwards will not win a spot as a running mate. Even Wes Clark :-) has higher ratings, for instance.
I've noticed that the parley for Clinton-Guiliani has been rising (this is the joint chance that they will be in the end-race). I think other pundits have Clinton-Romney rising.
THE STRATEGIES
When I mused back at week 23,
"If the numbers for Thompson are "real", then one has to seriously think that the next 'sell the losers' bet is a combo of Gore and McCain."
who knew that I was probably hitching on to the most perspicacious call so far, with Gore dropping 5% and McCain about twice that?
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 25.4 | -8.6 | 7% | | OBAMA | 20.4 | 3.7 | 17% | | GIULIANI | 19.1 | 7.7 | 2% | | THOMPSON(F) | 16.5 | 1.7 | 12% | | ROMNEY | 7 | -3.3 | 20% | | GORE | 3.8 | -4 | 32% | | EDWARDS | 3.2 | -0.1 | 41% |
| 2007 Week 28: Bill Clinton out on Campaign Trail in earnest; McCain campaign in huge shakeup, fires long-time advisors; Bush Admin reports and stumps for Iraq policy; NYC firefighters group launches first salvo against Guiliani. |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 39 | 14.3 | 14% | | THOMPSON(F) | 33.4 | 4.4 | 7% | | ROMNEY | 15.9 | -6 | 3% | | MCCAIN | 4 | -8.2 | 8% | | PAUL | 2.8 | 1.5 | 7% | | GINGRICH | 2.7 | 1 | 4% | | HUCKABEE | 1.2 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 44.8 | -4.8 | 0% | | OBAMA | 38.2 | 8.6 | 1% | | GORE | 5.9 | -4.6 | 2% | | EDWARDS | 5.4 | -0.7 | 2% | | RICHRDSN | 1.9 | -0.1 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.6 | 0.1 | n.m. | | CLARK | 0.6 | 0.1 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 77 | -3 | 11% | | GOP | 14.5 | 1.5 | 59% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 55.3 | 0.1 | 0% | | GOP | 38.1 | -3.4 | 6% | | OTH | 4.5 | 1.3 | 7% |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| RICHARDSON | 25 | 8.8 | 40% | | OBAMA | 13.6 | -19.5 | 40% | | CLARK | 11 | 3.3 | 118% | | WARNER | 10 | -2 | 50% | | WEBB | 10 | 6.3 | 10% | | VILSACK | 6.2 | 3.2 | 134% | | BAYH | 5.5 | 5.4 | 64% |
|
src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
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