Just the Numbers: Week 43

THE NUMBERS

The race continues to narrow.

Thompson's numbers finally break to the downside.

Gore's numbers fall off. Huckabee gets a boost, including as VP nominee, from winning so-called "Values Voters" poll from FRC gathering.

Clinton appears to be dominating in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Senate Republican candidates are showing as favorites, in Alaska, Idaho, New Mexico, Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota. Louisiana and New Hampshire are in a dead heat.

THE STRATEGIES

Not any special insights this week.

Picking the losers has been a sucessful adventure on this blog. With the breakdown in the Thompson and McCain figures, following those strategies would have netted over 20% each. Selling the combo early on of Hagel, Gingrich, Huckabee, Gore, Edwards, Biden, Clark has netted some 12% before trading costs, which is more than the U.S. stock market this year, it seems.

You can double your money is you bet on Clinton to win the nomination, but think that she will lose the general election.

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 46.7 1.2 3% GIULIANI 16.5 1.3 6% ROMNEY 7.3 -0.7 15% GORE 6.4 -1.7 9% OBAMA 6.1 -0.6 7% THOMPSON(F) 3.8 -2.3 29% PAUL 3.5 0.4 3%	2007 Week 43: Brownback withdraws as Colbert announces; GOP Candidates before "Values Voters Summit"; firestorms in California draw focus;
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask GIULIANI 41.8 2.1 3% ROMNEY 25.9 2.6 1% THOMPSON(F) 11 -11.4 1% MCCAIN 6.8 1.7 3% PAUL 6.8 1 1% HUCKABEE 6 3.3 15% RICE 1.1 -0.1 n.m.	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 69.1 1.6 1% OBAMA 12.4 1.5 1% GORE 7.4 -4.4 18% EDWARDS 5.2 1.6 2% RICHRDSN 0.7 0.1 n.m. BIDEN 0.3 0 n.m. DODD 0.2 0.1 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 87 0 6% GOP 6.6 -0.4 120%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 63 -0.3 0% GOP 35.2 -0.5 1% OTH 1.5 0 n.m.
DEM VP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask OBAMA 21.6 -0.4 2% BAYH 15.1 1.6 49% FIELD 12 -3 48% RICHARDSON 11.2 -2.8 69% GORE 8.2 1.8 34% CLARK 7.3 0.1 90% WEBB 5 1.8 60%

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid. Polls comparison, via RealClearPolitics.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

Caucus/Candidate	Pr (%)	Chg Wk.	bid-ask
Iowa Caucus
Democratic
CLINTON	66.1	15.1	13%
OBAMA	20	2.5	20%
EDWARDS	5	-5	198%
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
GORE	1	-9	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	67	5	6%
GIULIANI	1.5	-8.5	n.m.
THOMPSON(F)	5.1	-5	96%
FIELD	3	-3.2	223%
MCCAIN	1.5	0.5	n.m.
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	82	8	9%
OBAMA	10	-2	50%
EDWARDS	1	0.5	n.m.
FIELD	0.2	0	n.m.
GORE	6	4	67%
Republican
ROMNEY	50.3	0.3	19%
GIULIANI	33	-2	5%
THOMPSON(F)	0.2	0.1	n.m.
FIELD	5.5	2	76%
MCCAIN	7.5	2	96%
South Carolina Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	71	6	13%
OBAMA	20	0	50%
EDWARDS	0.5	-4.5	n.m.
FIELD	0.1	0	n.m.
GORE	2	1.9	400%
Republican
ROMNEY	10.3	1	62%
GIULIANI	35.3	0	27%
THOMPSON(F)	40	-5	3%
FIELD	4.6	3.6	96%
MCCAIN	2	-1.3	385%
Florida Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	80	80	6%
OBAMA	10	0	50%
EDWARDS	0.2	0	n.m.
FIELD	0	0	n.m.
GORE	0.1	-6	n.m.
Republican
ROMNEY	2.5	1.5	240%
GIULIANI	67	3	4%
THOMPSON(F)	20.1	-9.9	48%
FIELD	3.9	2.9	28%
MCCAIN	1	0	n.m.
Nevada Primary
Democratic
CLINTON	76	1	5%
OBAMA	5	0	180%
EDWARDS	5	0	80%
FIELD	0.1	0.1	n.m.
GORE	5	0	200%
Republican
ROMNEY	20.3	5	46%
GIULIANI	45.3	10.3	21%
THOMPSON(F)	20	20	63%
MCCAIN	1	0.8	n.m.

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