THE NUMBERS
Edwards is slipping. Huckabee looks topped out, but remains strongly bid for VP. McCain is flat.
The race has narrowed more on democratic side.
Because of his strong organization in Iowa, one wonders how the existence of the Edwards campaign will affect the results, if he keeps Obama, who appears to be the main rival stil, from building any momentum in that state.
The contracts continue to suggest four senate seats in play, two because of resignations: Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nebraska. So far, the markets are deeply confused about a replacement for Senator Pete Domenici.
THE STRATEGIES
Nothing new. Bets against Thompson and, now, Gore, as his contract ticks up to 11%, look like reasonably profitable for the risk.
The race narrows. The joint probability of any combo in the "finals" of Clinton, Romney, Giuliani, or Obama rises to the highest yet (just over 70%), lowering payoffs (to below 30%).
| Next President | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON(H) | 45.5 | 1.7 | 4% | | GIULIANI | 15.2 | -1 | 1% | | GORE | 8.1 | 2.1 | 32% | | ROMNEY | 8 | -0.1 | 2% | | OBAMA | 6.7 | -1 | 4% | | THOMPSON(F) | 6.1 | -2.6 | 15% | | PAUL | 3.1 | 0 | 19% |
| 2007 Week 41: Gingrich finds no money and says he will not run; GOP debate economics in Michigan; Ads make Romney look ever more contradictory; Senate battles heat up as the Collins campaign in Maine gets called on nastiness; President vetos health bill for kids; Non-candidate Gore wins Nobel Peace Prize, sending Reaganites into a tailspin (and probably Bill Clinton, too).  |
| GOP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| GIULIANI | 39.7 | 4.4 | 1% | | THOMPSON(F) | 22.4 | -2 | 0% | | ROMNEY | 23.3 | 0.8 | 2% | | PAUL | 5.8 | 0.2 | 16% | | MCCAIN | 5.1 | 0.5 | 2% | | HUCKABEE | 2.7 | 0.6 | 11% | | RICE | 1.2 | 0.6 | n.m. |
| | DEM Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON | 67.5 | 0.5 | 1% | | GORE | 11.8 | 3.4 | 2% | | OBAMA | 10.9 | -5.2 | 1% | | EDWARDS | 3.6 | -3 | 3% | | RICHRDSN | 0.6 | 0 | n.m. | | BIDEN | 0.3 | -0.1 | n.m. | | DODD | 0.1 | 0 | n.m. |
|
| Senate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 87 | 2 | 5% | | GOP | 7 | 2 | 86% |
| | Next Executive | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| DEM | 63.3 | 3.9 | 1% | | GOP | 35.7 | -3 | 2% | | OTH | 1.5 | 0.4 | n.m. |
|
| DEM VP Nominee | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| OBAMA | 22 | -4.1 | 5% | | FIELD | 15 | 3.8 | 18% | | RICHARDSON | 14 | -1.2 | 10% | | BAYH | 13.5 | -0.6 | 25% | | CLARK | 7.2 | 1.1 | 32% | | GORE | 6.4 | -1 | 111% | | STRICKLAND | 5.2 | -0.4 | 50% |
|
: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.
| President Parley | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| CLINTON-GIULIAN | 25 | -3 | 52% |
| CLINTON-ROMNEY | 15 | -1 | 30% |
| CLINTON-THOMP | 15 | 0 | 17% |
| OBAMA-GIULIANI | 7 | 0 | 43% |
| GORE-GIULIANI | 3.9 | 0.9 | 79% |
| OBAMA-THOMP | 3 | 0 | 167% |
| CLINTON-McCAIN | 3 | 0 | 167% |
| GORE-ROMNEY | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| Caucus/Candidate | Pr (%) | Chg Wk. | bid-ask |
|---|
| Iowa Caucus |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 51 | -9 | 16% |
| OBAMA | 17.5 | 0.8 | 14% |
| EDWARDS | 10 | -5 | 30% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 10 | 4.9 | 100% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 62 | 2 | 12% |
| GIULIANI | 10 | 0 | 88% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 10.1 | 0.1 | 45% |
| FIELD | 6.2 | 0.2 | 56% |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| New Hampshire Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 74 | -1 | 19% |
| OBAMA | 12 | 2 | 66% |
| EDWARDS | 0.5 | 0.4 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 2 | -7.7 | 1405% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 50 | 7 | 15% |
| GIULIANI | 35 | 7 | 13% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0.1 | -9.9 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 3.5 | -3.7 | 149% |
| MCCAIN | 5.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| South Carolina Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 65 | 5 | 15% |
| OBAMA | 20 | -5 | 49% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 194% |
| FIELD | 0.1 | 0.1 | n.m. |
| GORE | 0.1 | -5 | n.m. |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 9.3 | 0.3 | 58% |
| GIULIANI | 35.3 | 10.3 | 27% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 45 | -3 | 10% |
| FIELD | 1 | 0 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 3.3 | -1.7 | 194% |
| Florida Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 0 | -80 | n.m. |
| OBAMA | 10 | -0.1 | 50% |
| EDWARDS | 0.2 | 0.2 | n.m. |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 6.1 | 1 | 884% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 1 | 0.9 | n.m. |
| GIULIANI | 64 | 9 | 7% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 30 | -5 | 32% |
| FIELD | 1 | 0.9 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 1 | 0.2 | n.m. |
| Nevada Primary |
| Democratic |
| CLINTON | 75 | 5 | 7% |
| OBAMA | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| EDWARDS | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| FIELD | 0 | 0 | n.m. |
| GORE | 5 | 0 | 200% |
| Republican |
| ROMNEY | 15.3 | 3.3 | 552% |
| GIULIANI | 35 | 0 | 28% |
| THOMPSON(F) | 0 | -40 | n.m. |
| MCCAIN | 0.2 | 0 | n.m. |
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