Where the Pain Is

Worst in red (highest foreclosure filing rate).

src: realtytrac

Top 12 (baker's dozen):
Nevada
California
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Maryland
Georgia
Ohio
Michigan
Massachusetts
Indiana
Virginia
Illinois

There appears to be an steady flow at a higher level. There is a slight deterioration in the most recent numbers - seven states hit their worst rate simultaneously, the largest number in the recent downturn.

Pace so far this year suggests about 2.8 million foreclosures for 2008 (up to a high of 4.3, with 'normal' volatility). That's up 28%, but not near the tens of millions some feared. Still, figures are volatile. Filings can double, month-to-month, in individual markets.

This gives a little comfort to my fledgling housing model, which shows a long, gradual adjustment in housing, which is as much a hope as an odds-on forecast.

Baker's Dozen
District of Columbia
Virginia
Kansas
Maine
Massachusetts
Maryland
South Carolina
Oregon
South Dakota
Arizona
Utah
Rhode Island
Oklahoma

A lot of the states where things have deteriorated the most on a relative basis over the past six months still have very low levels.

Notable among them are the D.C., Maryland, and perhaps Arizona. Other states, like California, moved up near to their current high level and have remained there...

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