2008 Just the Numbers: Week 11

NEW TABLES, BOUNCE IN BIDS

The bid-offers have tightened in the week, which accounts for the large changes. Either that or there is a sampling bias associated with my practice of picking up these figures at week's end, when fewer bids are being made. The source prefers to do their charts on the offer (I've included new hyperlinks to them at the head of each table), but I prefer the bid.

BETTING AGAINST McCAIN?

That said, the widening of the bid-offer spread on the McCain in the Presidential contracts doesn't have an obvious explanation, as there wasn't especially thin volume. If fact, the regular size volume suggests that someone might be betting against McCain and driving the price down ...

GOP FIELD IS "OPENISH"

The GOP field is more open still than the democratic one, with 21% of the probability distribution outside the top three leaders. In contrast, the Dem field is more narrow, with 15% outside the top three.

EARLY RISKS DIFFERENT CHARACTER THAN LATER ON

Used to reading polls, people may think it is too early to think about these figures. However, there is arguably "smart" money to be made, potentially, by taking risks early, before races turn binary.

For instance, betting against this combo gains some 31% (before trading costs) perhaps by Super Tuesday, less than a year away on Feb 5: On the Democratic side, Gore, Edwards, Biden, Clark; on the Republican side, Hagel, Gingrich, Huckabee, and Brownback.

[n.b. refer to contract specification for details - contracts do not technically settle on Super Tuesday and unwinding trades before then would include paying the bid-offer spread, which is currently running at 0.1 for zero-bid candidates - or 0.8 for the eight candidates above, but may not guaranteed].

Next President Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON(H) 23.8 13.3 4% GIULIANI 20 3 6% OBAMA 16 15.9 24% McCAIN 9 -14.3 100% GORE 7.1 -12.9 10% ROMNEY 7 -0.5 11% EDWARDS 6 6 15%	2007 Week 11: GOP regulars unhappy with field, so Fred Thompson percolates in week; Newt in infidelity admission; Obama/Clinton forced to pronounce on "immorality"; Plame testifies; Gonzales "takes full responsibility". Dodd announces; Hagel fails to announce at his announcement.
GOP Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask GIULIANI 40.1 0.1 4% MCCAIN 22 -2 3% ROMNEY 16.1 -2.2 2% THOMPSON(F) 7 6.8 7% HAGEL 2.3 -1.2 39% GINGRICH 3.7 -0.8 16% HUCKABEE 2.5 0.1 16%	DEM Nominee Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask CLINTON 44.9 0.7 0% OBAMA 29.7 -0.1 2% GORE 10.4 -1.1 2% EDWARDS 8.9 0.3 9% RICHRDSN 4 0.5 2% BIDEN 1 0 n.m. CLARK 0.4 0 n.m.
Senate Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 75 2 12% GOP 16 -4 50%	Next Executive Pr (%) Chg Wk. bid-ask DEM 56.1 0 2% GOP 42.6 0 1% OTH 1.4 0 n.m.

src: intrade.com; bid-ask are not points, but spread as a percentage of the bid.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: this is just an informational note and not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell securities and there is no guarantee implied and people can lose all money on all investments. Numbers are believed to be correct, but do your own math and make your own conclusions or consult with an advisor before making any decisions.

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